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关于抄底,大多人都知道别人恐惧我抄底! 在熊市底部区间,并且横了一段时间,市场还有FUD的时候,我是会抄底的。 但市场才开始出现流动性问题的时候,我是不会盲目去抄底的,这是纪律,因为我不知道会不会有大的洪水倾泻出来。 如果有,那就等泄完去捡鱼,鱼又大又多还安全,捞点油水还是可以的。 如果没有,最多也就错过一点点不到手的短期利润而已。 别人恐惧我抄底的前提是正常海浪的退潮捡鱼,而不是海啸之前的退潮捡鱼。
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我们这个行业,说价值投资都是扯淡! 无非就是流动性和情绪的波动!
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当下和未来是两码事,如何判断未来才是关键! 投资一定是投资的未来,投资的是预期!只能是基于对未来的判断来制定计划和策略!
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决定币价的涨跌,归根结底是看买入和卖出的资金量博弈!我们投资就是要判断未来资金会向哪个方向变化?影响这些变化的因素有哪些?然后据此做买卖的决策!短期很难去猜测,但一段趋势还是可以判断的! 那么接下来会有哪些值得关注的点? 1、日元加息,会不会进一步抽走一部分流动性 2、白银、美股的行情,对币圈流动性算利空吧 3、微策略1月15日前后会决定是否移出纳指,会不会有资金提前避险。 4、1011对市场信心的打击,影响可能被低估! 5、美元降息已经落地,后期可能有预期也是新的美联储主席上任,即使之前还有降息也影响不大了,除非有超出市场预期的降息。
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