⚠️ The dollar is holding steady, with the market entering a silent waiting mode, all eyes focused on two key signals. Investors have collectively switched to a cautious mode, and both bulls and bears dare not act rashly before core data is released, choosing to observe and lie in wait. Currently, the dollar index is caught in a narrow range of fluctuations, losing direction, and the entire market is holding its breath for a clear answer.
📌 This week's ultimate focus: Two major events set the tone for December's interest rate direction
1. Federal Reserve meeting minutes (3 AM Beijing time on Thursday)
Powell has previously made it clear that a rate cut in December is not a done deal, breaking the market's optimistic expectations for easing policies. The core focus of this meeting's minutes is whether it will release more clear hints about the policy path, further strengthening or weakening rate cut expectations, becoming an important barometer for the dollar's direction.
2. September delayed non-farm data (Thursday evening, the most significant this week)
The current market's divergence on the December interest rate cut has reached an extreme, and the long-short battle is in a stalemate. The weight of this delayed non-farm data has been directly maximized—data performance will directly influence the balance of interest rate cut expectations:
If the data is strong (increase in employment, decrease in unemployment rate): the probability of an interest rate cut in December will significantly decline, and the US dollar may see upward catalysts;
If the data is weak (employment not meeting expectations, wage growth slowing): interest rate cut expectations will be reignited, and market risk appetite may recover.
The US dollar is waiting for direction anchoring, funds are waiting for signal confirmation, and sentiment is waiting for policy statements. This week's two major events will become key variables to break the current sideways stalemate, and the subsequent market trend is likely to unfold with intense reactions around the data results.
