where is ma200, could you explain this simply my friend, what do you mean, where are we going.. if we knew the chart, why should we follow you? explain it clearly so we can understand what is happening

Bitcoin overview. Read until the end.

BTC Daily MA200 Analysis Across 4 Bitcoin Cycles (End of Cycle: Q4 correction Vs Q1 Retest)

🟢 2013–2014 Cycle:

- Once price closed under MA200, it triggered a deep 71% correction.
- After finding the bottom, BTC made a 94% relief rally back toward the MA200 but failed to reclaim it.
- Conclusion: MA200 acted as heavy resistance during the entire bear phase.

🟢2017–2018 Cycle:

- Similar structure: BTC lost MA200 after the top.
- This breakdown caused a 67% decline over 109 days.
- BTC did a 54% relief rally, but again could not reclaim the MA200.
- Result: Multi-month accumulation under MA200 before a new bull cycle.
-Conclusion: MA200 = Bear Market Roof in this cycle.

🟢 2021–2022 Cycle

- BTC fell below MA200 after the mid-cycle top.
- Breakdown led to a 52% drop.
- BTC bounced 44%, touched the MA200, but failed to flip it.
- Price continued grinding lower for months.
- Conclusion: MA200 rejection = continuation of bear market.

🟢2025–2026 Cycle (Current Projection)

- BTC has again broken below MA200 after a big run.
- So far, the correction is -28%, in line with previous cycles.

If BTC repeats history:
- A relief rally toward MA200 is likely.
- Failure to reclaim MA200 could trigger multi-month sideways/lower price action.
- A clean reclaim of MA200 would signal a new bullish phase.

🟢 Simple Summary

In every Bitcoin cycle:

- Losing MA200 at the end of bull cycle (Q4) starts the bear phase.
-Relief rally back to MA200 = normal, but failure to reclaim MA200 = extended bear market / accumulation zone.
- Reclaiming and holding above MA200 = new bull cycle begins.

Remember this structure is valid if you believe in a 4-year cycle, but if the 4-year cycle theory is dead, we will see a new structure in the Bitcoin chart in 2026.

If the bear cycle is going to start, the market will give a retest rally at any time in the next 6 months as per all the last 3 cycles. If it repeats Q1/2018, we can see a 3x-5x jump in alts from here.