1. Core Operating Parameters
- Shorting Target: Zcash (ZEC)
- Entry Method: Limit short at $730
- Stop Loss Setting: $750 (breakthrough of previous high, avoiding extreme surge risk)
- Risk Level: Extremely high risk (short-term bullish momentum not dissipated, strong speculative nature)
2. Shorting Logic Support
1. Technical Resistance Clearly Defined: $730 is above the dense sell order area of $710-$720, where there is over $5.96 million in sell orders, and the daily chart forms an ascending expanding wedge pattern, which is a typical warning signal for a peak, making breakthroughs extremely difficult. Although the current RSI has retreated from the overbought zone, it still reflects that market enthusiasm has not fully waned, and high-level shorting has a basis for valuation correction.
2. Market Sentiment and Funding Concerns: The market is led by retail investors, the "too many retail investors" red alert has been triggered, and the momentum of the short squeeze has weakened. The previous 24-hour rise caused by over $36 million in short covering lacks sustained support. Although open contracts have reached $1.28 billion, the funding following momentum is marginally decreasing, and the willingness to buy at high levels is insufficient.
3. Trend Reversal Risk Accumulation: In the past two months, ZEC's price increase has approached 2000%, detaching from the fundamentals and ecological value of privacy coins. After an explosive rise driven purely by speculation, the probability of a sharp trend reversal has significantly increased, with the high of $730 nearing the limit of the upward cycle.
3. Core Risk Warnings
1. Bullish Momentum Backlash Risk: Celebrity holdings endorsement, rising privacy narrative, and halving expectations continue to support the price. If the stop-loss level of $750 is breached, it may trigger whale bullish accumulation and follow-on funding entry, pushing the price closer to the $1000 target.
2. Leverage and Volatility Risk: ZEC's 24-hour volatility exceeds 40%, and the derivatives market is fiercely contested by whales, with over 5 times high leverage short positions remaining high. Even minor price fluctuations may trigger forced liquidation.
3. Policy and Manipulation Risk: Virtual currency trading is not protected by our country’s laws, and the characteristics of ZEC manipulators are evident. Prices can be artificially manipulated by funds, potentially leading to extreme market conditions where backward harvesting occurs after breaking key price levels.
4. Auxiliary Risk Control Suggestions
- Position Control: Single short position not exceeding 3% of total funds, heavy betting is strictly prohibited to avoid insufficient margin liquidation.
- Take Profit Strategy: Two-tier take profit, first target $680-$690 (short-term support level), second target $660-$670 (previous dense trading area).
