The Bear market has 2 types:

1️⃣ Cyclical Bear:

Average decline: ~84%

Duration: over 2 years

2️⃣ Short-term Bear:

Average decline: ~36%

Duration: 2–3 months

Currently, BTC has decreased ~30% from the peak of 126k down to 88k.

The strongest liquidation occurred on 11/10, and it has been 40 days — quite closely matching the duration of the short-term bear.

👉 If in the next month BTC continues to decline beyond 36% without recovering, we will have additional confirmation signs that the market is entering a true downtrend.

Crypto winter? → It will be clear in about a month. ⚠️