Hang in there, the final frenzy is coming soon!
Personally, I am optimistic about this upcoming phase (from December 2025 to Q1 2026).
The reason is not 'faith', but a careful analysis of the repeatedly verified and quantifiable multiple resonance signals from the past three cycles of bull and bear markets.
Currently, almost all leading indicators simultaneously point to 'the healthy adjustment in the later stages of the bull market is approaching its end, and we are about to enter the acceleration phase of the main uptrend.'
Let me break down the strongest pieces of evidence for you one by one:
1. The iron law of the time cycle after halving (historically 100% accuracy).
2012 halving → peak approximately +550 days after the halving.
The halving in 2016 → the peak was about +525 days after the halving.
The halving in 2020 → the peak was about +546 days after the halving.
The halving on April 19, 2024 → corresponds to the peak timing window around October-November 2025.
We are currently in the historical maximum slope rise range '18-19 months after the halving'. In the past three cycles, this time point has always been the strongest period (doubling in September-November 2021, doubling in November-December 2017, and a tenfold increase in November-December 2013). The time cycle has not reached its peak yet.
2, institutional capital inflow has just entered the midfield, and it is far from a climax.
The cumulative net inflow of the US spot $BTC ETF is currently about 65 billion USD (as of November 21), accounting for only 0.6% of the total US stock ETF size and about 4% of the gold ETF.
Referencing the gold ETF: During the bull market from 2004 to 2011, the inflow of funds into gold ETFs accounted for the total market value of gold, reaching over 25%. Currently, BTC is only at 4%, leaving 5-6 times the space.
More importantly: After Trump's victory on November 5, the market expects that the 'pro-crypto legislation + strategic Bitcoin reserves' is likely to be implemented in 2026, which will completely open the allocation doors for national sovereign funds, pension funds, and university endowment funds. The speed of institutional research and registration of new products has significantly accelerated in the past three weeks (BlackRock and Fidelity are both hiring like crazy), and this wave of capital has not truly started yet.
3, on-chain strong hands accumulation has reached a historical level.
Addresses holding >1000 BTC (institutions/whales) have crazily increased their positions in the past 45 days, with a net inflow of over 85,000 BTC (about 8 billion USD), the highest single increase in this bull market.
The exchange's BTC balance has dropped to levels seen in 2018 (less than 2.3 million coins), while during the peak in 2021, the exchange still had 3.2 million coins. Supply and demand are completely out of balance.
The realized price (average cost of the entire network) is currently about 62,000 USD, and anything above 90K is pure profit, so strong hands have no motive to sell.
4, sentiment and leverage have been fully cleaned out.
The pullback from 108K to 89K in November has cleaned out high-leverage long positions, with the Binance perpetual contract long-short ratio dropping from 2.8 to 0.92, and the funding rate has been negative for two consecutive weeks, basically returning to the level of the panic bottom in August 2024.
Google Trends shows that the search popularity for 'Bitcoin' is only 15% of its peak during the bull market, and retail FOMO has completely not arrived. Historically, a true bull market peak must be characterized by 'taxi drivers asking if you bought Bitcoin,' but we are far from that now.
5, macro liquidity remains extremely friendly.
The Federal Reserve has clearly stated that there will be 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, and the global central bank balance sheets are still expanding.
The DXY dollar index has dropped more than 8% since the September high, and the four brothers—gold, silver, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin—are rising in sync. This is a typical 'Risk Asset Bull Market 3.0' combination.
After Trump took office, the fiscal deficit will only grow larger, inflation expectations have reignited, and Bitcoin, as a dual attribute of 'digital gold + high-beta asset', will be magnified.
Technical aspect: The most classic bull market retracement level has been reached.
The current price has just retraced to the extension level of the previous cycle high (69,000 in 2021) × 1.618 (approximately 92,000-95,000), which is a classic Fibonacci golden extension level.
A huge cup and handle formation has formed at the weekly level, with a neckline at 108,000. Once broken, the volume-price target points directly to 160,000-180,000.
In summary:
Currently, all quantifiable indicators—time cycles, institutional funds, on-chain data, sentiment cleaning, macro liquidity, and technical patterns—are almost 100% aligned with the bulls. The only weapon for the bears is 'it has already risen too much,' but this has been falsified in every bull market.
