Date: November 21, 2025
Event Overview:
In the early morning today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a comprehensive sell-off. Bitcoin has fallen below $87,000 for the first time since April, with a 24-hour drop of over 6%; Ethereum temporarily fell below the $2,800 mark, with the number of liquidations close to 230,000, and the liquidation amount reaching $830 million. This turmoil was triggered by a combination of macroeconomic policies, capital withdrawal, and high-leverage liquidations, causing market sentiment to plunge into 'extreme fear.'
🔍 The core incentive for this round of decline
Macroeconomic policy pressure concentrated and exploded
The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has plummeted, with some officials clearly opposing further rate cuts, believing that inflation pressure requires maintaining a tight policy. CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped to 29.8%.
U.S. tech stocks have fallen sharply (such as Nvidia and other AI concept stocks), exacerbating the risk-averse sentiment in the crypto market, leading to systemic sell-offs of risk assets.
Institutional funds are withdrawing on a large scale
Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow for the fifth consecutive week, with a cumulative withdrawal amount of about $2.6 billion. Major ETF products like BlackRock's IBIT are experiencing capital outflows, and previous support from institutional investors and corporate treasurers is leaving the market.
Whale accounts have sold over $20 billion in assets since September, with the 'four-year cycle theory' triggering sell-offs becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Chain reaction of high leverage liquidation
The market leverage ratio is at a historical high, and after prices fell below key levels, high-leverage longs (especially those above 20x) concentrated liquidations. In the past 24 hours, long positions were liquidated for $700 million, far exceeding the $130 million in short positions, triggering a liquidity crisis.
🌪️ Market impact and key changes
Altcoins generally follow the decline: mainstream altcoins like BNB, Dogecoin, and Cardano have all dropped more than 5%, and the total market value of the Meme sector has shrunk nearly 40% in a single day.
Panic sentiment spreads: The 'Fear and Greed Index' for cryptocurrencies has dropped to 16 (extreme fear), and search volumes for keywords like 'Bitcoin crash' have surged.
Capital flow changes: Some funds are shifting from speculative assets to practical projects, such as blockchain + AI concept tokens rising against the trend in a weak market.
Significant institutional divergence:
Bears: Morgan Stanley warns that if the Federal Reserve remains inactive in December, Bitcoin may face further pressure; analyst Damian Chmiel believes that if the price remains below $100,000, it may drop to $74,000.
Bulls: Grayscale insists on a 'structurally bullish' outlook for Bitcoin, and Standard Chartered believes the selling tide may have ended, with a possible rebound by the end of the year.
🧭 Newcomer operational thought reference
Strict control of leverage risk
Current volatility is soaring, and high leverage easily triggers liquidations. Historical data shows that over 80% of accounts that are liquidated have leverage exceeding 10x.
Pay attention to policy indicators
The December Federal Reserve meeting (December 16-17) is a key event; if rate cut expectations rise, it may boost risk assets.
Patiently wait for stabilization signals
The market needs to undergo a liquidity reset (de-leveraging + panic selling clearing), extreme panic often breeds opportunities, but signals such as shrinking transaction volume and declining volatility must be awaited for stabilization.
Conclusion
This round of decline is a triple test of macro pressure, capital withdrawal, and leverage liquidation. For newcomers, it is more important to avoid blindly bottom-fishing, control positions, and focus on long-term value rather than short-term speculation. The market never lacks opportunities; what is lacking is the capital to survive.
Interactive topic: Where do you think the next key support level for Bitcoin is? Feel free to share your observations in the comments~
Disclaimer: This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. The risks in the crypto market are extremely high, and investments should be made cautiously.
