Recently, many friends have completely lost confidence in the market. The situation has not improved for a long time, and everyone increasingly feels whether this cycle has completely turned bearish. This sentiment is particularly understandable, as the shrinking numbers in the account represent the most direct blow.
Especially seeing some major institutions' movements makes people feel even more uneasy. For example, BlackRock recently reduced its holdings by 12,000 bitcoins and 172,000 ethers. When this data came out, many people panicked. Just think about it, they only hold a few hundred thousand in total, and selling so much at once inevitably raises questions about whether the direction has changed.
However, if we think from the logic of capital, this operation may not necessarily be an 'active abandonment', but more like a 'passive choice'. Previously, BlackRock bought a large amount of Bitcoin, which may have caused some cash tightness. Coupled with the possible shift in global monetary policy that may stop tightening liquidity, retaining more cash becomes very important—even if it means temporarily sacrificing a portion of assets. Moreover, as the year-end approaches, institutions need to provide shareholders with an explanation; the pressure for dividends or returns is also significant.
So you see, the outflow in the market is greater than the inflow. If it were the other way around, the market should have risen long ago. Regarding this data, one more thing to note: what we see is often 'the past'. Whether it's BlackRock or Grayscale, by the time the news comes out, their operations may have already been completed. Looking at it from another angle, when most people start to feel pessimistic, perhaps the reversal signal is quietly brewing.
On the macro front: On November 22, CME FedWatch data indicated that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has reached 69.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 30.6%. Is this truly a case of 'the wolf is coming', or just a play on retail investors? If an interest rate cut can be realized in December, the likelihood of seeing a rebound is greatly increased. The main point right now is whether you have enough ammunition to charge forward when the market truly starts.
Although the short-term market is a bit disappointing, there will definitely be a rebound at the end of the month or the beginning of December. OKB and SOL are the top choices; these have been the targets for several wave operations. OKB is currently around 97, and SOL is around 125, both of which can be used to initiate a small position. Before the trend becomes completely clear, we should primarily focus on short-term operations and not lose sight of the big picture over minor losses.
