我是村长

截至今日早间，比特币价格在 92,700美元 附近震荡。回顾昨日（12月9日）晚间行情，价格曾一度攀升至94,556美元高点，但随后承压回落，进入震荡下行通道。这种“冲高回落、高位整理”的格局，清晰地表明了市场在当前位置的巨大分歧。
从技术结构看，4小时级别K线呈现阴阳交替的探底回升走势，价格在收复布林带上轨后，多头动能有所停顿，市场正在为下一波方向选择积蓄力量。日线图上，布林通道呈平行态势，价格从上轨回踩， 95,000美元关口与日线上轨共同构成了短期空头的重要防守位 。
若能突破，则可能引发新一轮爆发性上涨；若无法突破，市场将继续在当前高位震荡区间内运行。

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上周微策略又买了 10624 枚比特币，价值 9.627 亿美元，买入均价为 90615 美元，并实现了 2025 年至今 24.7% 的比特币收益率

每次当有人质疑微策略不行，要暴雷时，微策略再次用行动狠狠打了这些人的脸

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Cryptanalysis expert 'TXMC' stated on platform X that despite the recent decline in Bitcoin prices, the liveliness of this cycle continues to rise, indicating that there is a bottom in the demand for spot Bitcoin, which has not been reflected in the price trend. This may mean that the bull market cycle of this round has not yet ended. The analyst claims that this indicator reflects the long-term moving average of Bitcoin's on-chain activity, which is the sum of all lifecycle spending and on-chain holding activity. During a bull market, as supplies change hands at higher prices, market 'liveliness' typically increases, indicating a new influx of investment capital.

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This morning, the simultaneous rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum has brought a rare warmth to the market, proving that buying power still exists near key support levels. However, we must clearly recognize that this is more like the calm before the storm. This week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is like the 'Sword of Damocles' hanging over the market, and the policy signals it releases will directly determine the short-term fate of global risk assets.
For Bitcoin, the support zone of $87,000-$88,000 is the bottom line that cannot be lost, while the resistance range of $92,000-$95,000 is the ceiling that requires all efforts to break through. For Ethereum, stabilizing above $3,100 is the basis for maintaining strength, but it needs to quickly move away from this area to expand upward space to avoid changes after prolonged consolidation.

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Early this morning, the price of Bitcoin fell below the key psychological level of $91,000, with a daily decline reaching as much as 1.87%. Although there was a technical rebound afterward, the decline narrowed to about 1.2%, with prices hovering around $92,300. This volatility has undoubtedly sounded the alarm for the market.
After several weeks of significant rebound from a low of $80,000, Bitcoin has failed to establish a solid position above $94,000, instead revealing signs of fatigue once again. Currently, the market is at a critical crossroads defined by a macroeconomic storm, a fragile technical structure, and conflicting bullish and bearish expectations.

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Yesterday's high fell from 93915 to around 91370, continuing the daytime rebound early in the morning, rising to 94127 and then fluctuating around 93000. It still maintains a high-level consolidation pattern after the rebound, as technical indicators show overbought conditions leading to profit-taking. The price faced pressure when attempting to break higher resistance levels, but market trading remained active, and overall volatility narrowed, indicating a cautious sentiment at high levels. Currently, the price is still constrained by the daily MA30 moving average at 94300, with strong resistance remaining in the 95000-96000 range. Looking at the short-term four-hour chart, after experiencing seven consecutive bullish candles, the price action has narrowed, indicating a weakening upward momentum, and the risk of a short-term pullback has increased. During the day, attention should be paid to the strength of the pullback repair, with support levels to watch at 92500 (which broke through an important resistance yesterday and confirmed support on the pullback) and the 91500-91000 range! However, Bitcoin's overall rebound today is lower than that of Ethereum, so be mindful of subsequent recovery situations.

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Yesterday, there were several major positive factors that led to the rise

1. Next year, Powell confirmed his resignation, and expectations for interest rate cuts have increased
2. The world's second-largest asset management company, Vanguard, will allow investors to trade BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF
3. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve officially confirmed the end of quantitative tightening

With these three positive news items, BTC rebounded strongly, and it's only a matter of time before it breaks through 100,000 again

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Today is Wednesday. After experiencing significant fluctuations in the previous trading day, Bitcoin exhibited a strong rebound on December 3rd. Bitcoin broke above the $92,000 level during early Asian trading, with a maximum increase of nearly 8% in the past 24 hours, currently trading above $92,700. Meanwhile, Ethereum also strongly broke through the $3,000 barrier, and the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has significantly improved.

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The start of December has been hit again, directly plummeting to five points early in the morning! Currently, BTC 86700 ETH 2850, it looks like the beginning of this month is again a story of looking for support levels: in the short term, ETF funds are flowing back, and in the long term, the chips are starting to loosen; below, we still honestly respect the trend, not gambling on V-shaped carbohydrates, and if there is another drop, we will wait for an exhilarating or exciting surprise to take action. Looking for support levels, patiently waiting,

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On November 28, according to Coinbob's popular address monitoring, in the past 5 hours, the "largest short on ZEC on Hyperliquid" has continuously increased its MON short position by approximately $1.2 million, with an average price rising to $0.0369. The floating loss has narrowed from yesterday's $1.3 million to $30,000, with the current position size approximately $6.57 million, making it the largest short on MON on Hyperliquid.

In addition, the current floating loss on ZEC short position for this address has further narrowed from yesterday's $6.14 million to a current floating loss of $2.9 million (50%), with a position size of $30 million and an average price of $419. Previously, on the 17th, the maximum floating loss reached $21 million.#币圈

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently 84.9% and is still increasing.

The market has been rebounding as expected, with Bitcoin at 95,000 and Ethereum at 3,400.

A flourishing market gives the feeling of a bull market again.

If the monthly line can be pulled more aggressively, it would be even more comfortable to have a big market movement.

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Where is the key support level for Solana in the short term?
The main support level for Solana (SOL) is at the bottom of the 100 dollar channel, with the middle range of 105-110 dollars being a historical accumulation area. A short-term rebound may point to resistance at 150-165 dollars, but falling below 100 dollars could lead to further declines. Traders should closely monitor trading volume to confirm any reversal signals.

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Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains in a fluctuating bullish pattern this week. Although price volatility is relatively frequent, from a technical perspective and capital flow, the strength of the bulls is gradually accumulating, and the market still has significant breakout potential. Investors can develop reasonable entry and exit strategies based on technical signals, pay attention to price pullbacks and breakout timing, and closely monitor the changes in the Federal Reserve's policies to capture potential market opportunities.

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This time, many altcoins have dropped harder than Ethereum
What does this indicate?
Many quality altcoins have already dropped to their limits
Both large and retail investors do not want to sell
Many altcoin prices are at historical lows
Some are even lower than the price established by whales
They have stopped dropping
Unless there is another major negative news
In extreme panic, there will be a dip
However, the current position is already a very good entry point
Still, the same saying applies: choose quality altcoins: accumulate in batches at the bottom, even the whales feel helpless

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