#Write2Earn Metcalfe's law governs the spread of epidemics and cascading earthquakes, the same law predicts the price of Bitcoin with 90% accuracy over 15 years.
📐 The essence of Metcalfe's law
Statement: the value of the network is proportional to the square of the number of its participants.
V = n2
where V is the value of the network, n2 is the number of active users/addresses squared.
Initially, the law was applied to telecommunications and the internet, but later it was used to assess social networks and cryptocurrencies.
🔗 Application to Bitcoin
The Metcalfe model shows that the price of BTC correlates with the growth of active addresses and transactions. For Bitcoin, this means: the more wallets and transactions, the higher the fair price.
Research (for example, in Nature and Finance Research Letters) indicates that the model explains up to 90% of long-term price fluctuations over the last 15 years.
This means: when the network grows (more users, transactions, miners), the price grows exponentially; when activity decreases — the price corrects.
🌍 Why it is compared to epidemics and earthquakes
Epidemics: the spread of infection also follows network effects — the more contacts, the faster the growth.
Earthquakes: cascading processes — a small tremor can trigger an avalanche of events, just like in networks.
In the crypto market: an increase in the number of participants → cascading price growth; outflow → cascading decline.
📊 Practical significance
BTC as a network: the more wallets and transactions, the higher the fair price.
Forecasts: the Metcalfe model often provides more accurate long-term estimates than classical technical analysis.
Limitation: short-term shocks (sanctions, wars, regulation) can disrupt the price from the model, but in the long run, it returns to 'network value'.
🔮 Long-term forecast
According to Metcalfe's model, analysts expect that by 2035 BTC could reach $1.5 million.
This is not a guaranteed scenario, but it reflects the power of network effects and exponential growth. After all, in the long run, growth is maintained if the BTC network continues to expand.
Conclusion: Metcalfe's law is fundamental 'network mathematics' that explains why Bitcoin grows not linearly, but exponentially. It truly works like in epidemics and earthquakes: the network either accelerates growth or accelerates decline.
Comments
And now imagine the growth of the DOGS price, if Pavel Durov continues to actively promote DOGS worldwide?🤭
This could cause a short-term explosive growth in the price $DOGS to $0.14-0.22 due to the network effect, global popularity, and hype with BTC at $250,000 in 2026! 😉 In this scenario, the price of $NOT will be $1 💵
📈 Potential growth factors for DOGS
Durov's effect: his influence on the crypto community and Telegram audience can sharply increase the number of DOGS holders, example - Notcoin, $TON
Network effect: according to Metcalfe's law, the more users, the higher the value of the network → price increase.
Meme dynamics: DOGS is positioned as a meme token of the TON network, and such assets often grow on waves of hype. For example: DOGS has already shown rollercoaster-like behavior — rising ×10 to $0.001 and falling ×100 to $0.00001
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