The current market ETH is in a downtrend.
The evening star pattern forms a strong bearish resonance with the long-term moving average's bearish arrangement.
Market sentiment is neutral, with no significant pressure or support in the macro environment, and it has not created any obvious interference with the trend.
Custom overbought and oversold indicators show short-term oversold signals, which may trigger a rebound, and one should be wary of the support level of 2620 being breached.
ETH is currently in a clear downtrend, with technical signals indicating an overall bearish market. The evening star pattern serves as a strong bearish reversal signal, resonating with the bearish arrangement of the long-term moving average system, further reinforcing the bearish expectations for the market. However, the custom overbought and oversold indicators show that there may be a demand for a rebound in the short term, which is somewhat in conflict with the overall trend. Additionally, market sentiment and volatility are at neutral levels, providing no clear directional guidance for price movements.
From the external environment perspective, macro factors have limited disturbance to the market. Market sentiment is neutral, and no significant event risks have emerged, resulting in a relatively mild impact of the overall environment on prices. However, market news is mixed, with institutional buying of Bitcoin creating bullish sentiment while long-term holders’ selling behavior serves as a hedge, further exacerbating short-term uncertainty.
Overall, despite the possibility of a short-term rebound, the market remains in a bearish trend dominated by strong bearish signals on the technical side. The performance of the key support level at 2620 will be crucial in determining the next market movement.
Technical Diagnosis
Overall environment rating: The external environment is generally rated as "neutral".
Core evidence: Market news is mixed, with institutional buying offsetting the selling behavior of long-term holders.
Based on the above analysis, we propose the following trading strategy plan. Please refer to your own risk preference.
Short Selling - Conservative
Entry area: 2833.4 (near the resistance level)
Stop loss price: 2900
Target area: 2620
Strategy basis: Given that the current market is in a long-term bearish trend, and the evening star pattern resonates strongly with the bearish arrangement of long-term moving averages, the price near the resistance level of 2833.4 provides a good low-risk short-selling opportunity. Therefore, adopting a conservative strategy to initiate short positions near the resistance level is a reasonable choice in line with the trend.
If the price breaks through 2900 and stabilizes, it indicates that the short-term rebound momentum exceeds expectations, and a stop loss should be executed.
