In the past three months, major global assets have almost simultaneously peaked:
ETH peaked at 4950
BTC approached 125800 in early October
Gold hit 4400 USD/ounce
The US stock index reached a historical high of 24000 points
During this entire period, positive and negative factors have continuously intertwined, with the market being consistently driven up and then rapidly crashed. Some suffered heavy losses and exited, some cashed out at high points, while the majority of funds were 'killed' in the volatility, becoming 'dead money' that is no longer willing to enter the market. The rotation of sentiment, policy direction, and risk appetite all indicate that the market has reached a node: it is not that prices are too high, nor that there is a lack of funds, but that the risk-return ratio has significantly decreased, making it no longer cost-effective to invest large capital at high points.
Therefore, now is a period of adjustment, as well as a stage for reassessing direction.
Macroeconomic aspect: The dual pressure of U.S. policies and economic environment.
Policy side:
Powell has only half a year left in his term, and the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight framework.
Trump needs to stabilize the political base through the midterm elections, and policies are more likely to be conservative and risk-averse.
Economic aspect:
The Federal Reserve continues to reduce its balance sheet, withdrawing liquidity from the financial system.
U.S. Treasury yields are falling, but the U.S. dollar index has risen above 100, indicating an increase in risk aversion.
As the year-end approaches, major institutions enter settlement periods and risk control windows, making capital investments more cautious.
These factors combined make it difficult for the market to restart in the short term.
If there is a wave of 'flash in the pan' rebound, the scale will also be limited.
Real structural opportunities are more likely to concentrate after the second quarter of next year.
Cryptocurrency assets: The rebound is not over, but the bottom has not yet arrived.
ETH: A two-phase decline, with a rebound in between.
ETH dropped from 4950 to 2600, seeming like a 'discount price', but this is not the final bottom.
Your logic is basically accurate:
2600 is a phase low, not a cyclical bottom.
A rebound is expected, with a range roughly between 3200–3600.
Even if it breaks through, it is likely a false breakout, followed by a structure of fluctuations + gradual decline.
The real big bottom range is expected to fall between 1800–1300.
In other words, this is not a bottom-fishing point, just a rebound point.
BTC: A faith asset, it won't collapse too deeply.
The attributes of BTC are completely different from other assets:
It is a barometer of sentiment.
It is also the 'crypto treasury bond' for institutional allocation.
Every deep drop will have capital support.
Therefore, the reasonable correction range for BTC is likely between 60,000 and 30,000, and extreme deep drops are unlikely.
But this is also waiting for value, rather than rushing to buy.
