The Federal Reserve's "Dilemma" and the December Rate Cut Game

Title: September Non-Farm Payrolls Intensify Internal Divisions within the FOMC, December's "Preemptive Rate Cut" Remains Unresolved

The contradictory September non-farm payroll report has brought significant uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision and exacerbated the existing divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The Tug of War between Hawkish and Dovish Interpretations:

· The hawkish view holds that the addition of 119,000 jobs indicates that the labor market remains robust and has not collapsed, which diminishes the urgency for an immediate rate cut.

· The dovish perspective emphasizes that the unemployment rate has breached the 4.4% threshold, the previous month's data has been revised downward, and wage growth has slowed (with September's average hourly wage increasing by only 0.2% month-on-month), collectively providing solid evidence of a cooling labor market. Delaying a rate cut poses a risk of the economy "stalling."

The Challenge of a "Data Vacuum": The reason decision-making has become more complex is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the October employment report will be permanently missing, and the November report has also been postponed to December 16. This means that before the December FOMC meeting, policymakers will lack the latest employment data guidance. Analysts at CMB International Securities (Hong Kong) maintain their judgment on the December "preemptive rate cut," believing it is more likely based on confidence in a "soft landing" for the economy, rather than in response to an imminent recession. #美国非农数据超预期