Signals Diverging from History? The Implications of the Recent Non-Farm Payrolls as U.S. Stocks and Bitcoin Both Decline

Looking back at history, strong non-farm payroll data has often prompted a "bull market" for U.S. stocks. For example, after the non-farm data exceeded expectations in September 2024 and April 2025, all three major U.S. stock indices recorded gains. The underlying logic is that robust employment indicates a healthy economy and favorable corporate profit prospects.

However, the market's reaction this time diverged from this historical pattern, with both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin declining. This is mainly due to the current market being under a special macroeconomic context:

1. Inflation remains a pressing concern: The market worries that strong employment data may signal more persistent inflationary pressures, thereby forcing the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for a longer period.

2. High valuations: U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, are at elevated valuations and are extremely sensitive to any "hawkish" shift in monetary policy.

3. Credibility of the data is in question: In recent years, non-farm payroll data has often been significantly revised, and the internal divergence of this data has led some investors to question its authenticity and representativeness.

This divergence suggests that, in the eyes of the market, "good news" (strong employment) may be turning into "bad news" (later interest rate cuts).