Hidden Risks and Future Key Observation Points Under Gleaming Data

Title: Rising Unemployment Rate and Divergence from Non-Farm Payrolls, Risks Hidden in the 'Softening' U.S. Labor Market

The non-farm payroll data for September appears impressive on the surface, but the hidden risks behind it cannot be ignored.

Core Risk Points:

· Divergence Between Unemployment Rate and New Employment: This contradictory situation typically occurs when the labor supply increases (more people entering the job market) but job creation fails to keep pace, signaling a marginal softening of the labor market.

· Rise in Permanent Unemployment: A dangerous signal easily overlooked in the report is that the proportion of permanent unemployed has risen to its highest level since 2021.

· Leading Indicators Warning: The monthly average data of hiring plans up to the end of October has significantly declined. Additionally, high-frequency data such as weekly initial unemployment claims also indicate that the labor market is cooling down.

Future Observation Points: All eyes will be on December 16, when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will simultaneously release the employment reports for October and November. These two reports will provide a clearer direction for the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy path.