Bitcoin has dropped 36% in market value from its highest point to its lowest point over the past 40 days, with the recent low approaching $80,000. What will the future trend be? Has Bitcoin entered a bear market? This can be analyzed through 4 indicators:

1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Trend Line

Using weekly EMA lines (including EMA20, EMA60, EMA120, EMA150, and MA200) to determine trends and support/resistance levels. Objectively, the current technical trend of Bitcoin is not very optimistic, as the weekly close is below the 60-week EMA line, breaking the convention since the upward trend began in 2023. However, for long-term investors, EMA lines are very useful auxiliary tools for planning more reasonable buying strategies. If Bitcoin does not continue to drop below EMA120, it may currently be a good buying opportunity.

2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): This indicator measures the strength of the asset's upward or downward movement. An RSI below 30 is considered oversold, while above 70 is considered overbought. Historically, when Bitcoin's daily RSI enters the oversold zone (below 30), it is likely to experience a rebound in the following weeks. In recent days, the RSI has entered the oversold zone.

3. Fear and Greed Index: Currently, the cryptocurrency market's Fear and Greed Index is 13, indicating extreme fear. The current level of panic is approaching the major bear market of 2022. If the index continues to plummet and even falls below 10, the lowest price point for Bitcoin in this cycle may emerge.

4. The impact of macro events on price trends: The recent drop in Bitcoin's price is closely related to the U.S. government shutdown and the expansion of the TGA account balance to about $1 trillion, which has led to decreased market liquidity. If the U.S. government reopens, the TGA account will slowly release liquidity into the market. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in December as expected, it will also bring liquidity. The return of macro liquidity in the future may facilitate Bitcoin to successfully bottom out around $80,000 and enter an upward reversal.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are seen as the next technological revolution following the internet, alongside AI general artificial intelligence. The current state of the industry is very similar to the recovery phase after the 2000 internet bubble burst, holding enormous long-term potential.