Morning rebound short strategy re-validated

November 24 Morning Thoughts
Geopolitically, the EU vetoes key terms of the US peace agreement, bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict back into focus and driving safe-haven funds into the market to support coin prices. On the monetary side, New York Fed President Williams (a voting member) made dovish remarks, pushing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December from below 30% to nearly 70%, directly driving a short-term rise in coin prices. Currently, there is a divergence in positions within the Fed; Logan and Kroszner lean towards pausing rate cuts, while Milan supports a rate cut. Attention should be paid to their policy direction and developments in regions such as Japan and the US. Technically, there is a strong differentiation in multiple cycles; in the daily timeframe, coin prices have shown weakness with consecutive negative candles, MACD operates below the zero line, and RSI is low indicating cautious sentiment. EMA120 is diverging from the current price, and the long-term bearish trend remains unchanged. In the hourly timeframe, coin prices fluctuate around 84600, with K-line bodies narrowing, indicating a balance between bulls and bears. The MACD histogram has turned from green to red, and DIF and DEA are converging, suggesting a potential golden cross. RSI at 50.27 is neutral, with EMA7 providing support and EMA30 applying pressure. The short term needs to verify the breakout direction; overall, the market is temporarily boosted by news, but the long-term weakness remains unchanged. Operations should focus on the effectiveness of key level breakouts and respond cautiously to risks.
Bitcoin short at 87500-88500, target 85900-84900
Ethereum short at 2820-2860, target 2740-2700
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