Bitcoin has begun to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent drop below six figures (100,000 USD) has led people to reassess the near-term outlook. With some key technical and on-chain levels having been lost, I have readjusted my fundamental scenario, stating that the likelihood of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. If key levels are regained, this situation could change rapidly, but until then, market conditions seem to have shifted from a strong bullish trend into a correction phase.

"Buy the Dip"

Bitcoin has seen quite a significant pullback, but buying the dip is not always the best strategy unless it is within a confirmed bull market trend. In a bear market environment, nascent pullbacks can still lead to significant price declines. Short-term and upcoming pullbacks are typical in a downtrend market, making it increasingly important to react based on data rather than preemptively predicting the bottom.

From our chart analysis of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, we can see this repeated pullback pattern. It is also clear that this metric acted as a key resistance during this phase, with sustained rebounds only occurring after BTC regained the short-term holder realized price level.