无忧指路

8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency space, focusing on medium to long-term strategies, breaking even, doubling down, and casual discussions in a directionless chat room.

On the evening of 12.8, the thought process

From the four-hour perspective, the market is continuously solidifying, consistently anchoring the upward oscillation channel. The current trend exhibits strong continuity; the market has not released any effective reversal signals, and the leading entity is dominating the market direction with absolute control. At this stage, the market sentiment has entered the core phase of strong bullish control, where the volume release and trend direction resonate perfectly, further strengthening the credibility of the upward logic. Moving forward, if there is a short-term slight pullback adjustment, attention should be focused on the validity of the support levels. Once the support is confirmed as solid, it will be an excellent opportunity to accumulate long positions.

Operational Suggestions
Bitcoin around 91000-90750, target around 93500
Ethereum around 3100-3080, target around 3250

On the afternoon of the 12th, the current ascending channel is not completely destroyed from a four-hour perspective, but after a sharp drop in the morning, the trend has returned to a state of volatility correction and shows signs of a head and volume increase. The Bollinger Bands are in a contracted state, which often indicates that a one-sided market is brewing. Additionally, the sharp drop in volume this morning weakened the technical structure at this level, with the core resistance above at 90000 and primary support below at 86000. From a one-hour perspective, this level shows a continuous lower peak and valley downward structure, with the effect of head pressure being significant, and bullish momentum continuously diminishing. Although there was a slight correction after the sharp drop in the morning, the overall head volume increase trend has not changed. If it can recover the 90000 level later, it may alleviate short-term panic, but if the rebound is weak, it may continue the downward trend. In the afternoon, the idea of continuing the rebound as head remains.

Operation Suggestions:
For Bitcoin around 87300, target towards 85000
For Ethereum around 2890, target towards 2750

SOL 4-hour Bollinger Band lower band has broken down, the upward selling pressure is obvious, and the support established last week has become resistance. There is some rebound momentum on the 1-hour chart, but it is weak. It is recommended to short at 133.35 and 135.90, and first observe whether the recent support at 126.30 and 124.90 can hold.

As the Dragon Kingdom's regulations tighten and Thanksgiving coincides with the weekend, the overall market is relatively weak. The shrinking of transactions combined with poor closing performance makes a pullback quite normal. This week is the first week of December and also the non-farm payroll data week, so pay close attention to the subsequent data release situation.

On the morning of the 12th, thoughts

From the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is currently consolidating around 90500, with the 90000 round number becoming an important support line. The Bollinger Bands are generally narrowing, while trading volume continues to shrink, showing no significant expansion. Currently, the short-term upward trend has not been broken; if this support area can hold firm, there is still upward momentum in the market; once it breaks down, the price may test lower ranges.

Operational suggestions
Long Bitcoin in the range of 86300-86800, target near 90000
Long Ether in the range of 2800-2820, target near 2950

On the afternoon of November 28

From a four-hour level perspective, the Bollinger Bands are showing a clear dominance of the 'do' market, with the current K-line continuously alternating and expanding around the upper Bollinger Band without a significant pullback from the upper band. Furthermore, the overall Bollinger Bands do not show signs of narrowing; instead, there is a slight opening upwards as prices rise, which intuitively reflects a strong bullish sentiment in the short term, with upward momentum continuing to be released. From a one-hour level perspective, the Bollinger Bands are significantly narrowing, and this formation intuitively reflects a decrease in Bitcoin's volatility in the short term, with both 'do' parties locked in a stalemate. The market is currently in a stage of brewing direction choice, with no clear unilateral trend guidance. After previous price rebounds and slight pullbacks, a sustained unilateral volatility momentum has not formed, prompting the Bollinger Bands channel to gradually narrow. Currently, the main approach is still to buy on dips without direction.

Operation suggestion:
The big coin is around 90500, targeting 92500
Auntie is around 2960, targeting 3100

November 28 Morning Thoughts

According to the current market structure analysis, the four-hour level shows that prices continue to run below the upper Bollinger Band, with neither bulls nor bears demonstrating effective breakthrough momentum. Overall, the market has gradually entered a consolidation phase where time is exchanged for space. Although bears are currently showing a slight pullback, due to the Bollinger Band continuing to open upwards, the willingness to explore lower levels still exists. From the one-hour level observation, after experiencing four consecutive small bullish rebounds, the market quickly turned into four consecutive small bearish pullbacks, accompanied by the Bollinger Band gradually narrowing, and the price structure is also showing a volatile pattern. The current continuous consolidation can be seen as a higher probability for bulls to build momentum for a second upward attack, thus the bullish sentiment remains dominant, and in the morning session, attention can be paid to the possibility of bulls making another effort.

Operation Suggestions
Bitcoin 90500-91000 buy Target 92500
Ethereum 2970-3000 buy Target 3100

On the evening of November 27th

From the current market perspective, the hourly level shows that the momentum of the previous rebound has significantly weakened, and the market is entering a phase of consolidation and fluctuation. From the performance of price and the Bollinger Bands, although the price has broken through the middle track and is approaching the upper track, the recent continuous small bearish candles and doji candlesticks reflect insufficient upward momentum for the bulls, and there is a high probability of a short-term pullback towards the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Looking at the MACD indicator, although the DIF has crossed above the DEA to form a golden cross, and the histogram continues to expand, indicating that the bulls still have the upper hand in the short term, the upward slope of the DIF has clearly slowed down, meaning that the strength of this rebound will gradually weaken, making it difficult to have a strong upward movement in the future.

Operation suggestions
Short around 91800 for Bitcoin, target 89500
Short around 3050 for Ether, target 2950

November 27 Morning Thoughts

Today, the American market is closed for Thanksgiving, and the overall trend is not expected to be significant. On the four-hour level, the market is in a rebound cycle, with bullish momentum dominating. The bears' attempts to reverse the situation have not succeeded, and the price of the currency is showing a continuous upward trend, with clear signals of bullish revival. As support levels continue to rely on bullish strategies, the upward movement reflects that the bulls are steadily advancing.

Operation Suggestions
Buy Bitcoin around 89500-90000, target 91500
Buy Ethereum around 2960-2990, target 3100

On the evening of November 26th

Currently, Bitcoin is around 86500, after testing the bottom at 86200 it will begin to make a small rebound, the rebound is not a reversal, the rebound is just an opportunity for us to get back in. Bitcoin is under short-term pressure at the 88200 level, with 86000 serving as key support, while Ethereum encounters resistance at the 3000 mark, with 2850 forming a lower support. Continue to hold high positions in the evening.

Operational Suggestions
Bitcoin 87300-87700 range, target 85300
Ethereum 2940-2960 range, target 2850

The bearish outlook in the morning has been successfully validated! The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the vision to accurately capture trends!

On the afternoon of November 26th, the upward rebound trend at the daily level is clear, but the upward momentum has significantly weakened; on the four-hour chart, multiple long lower shadows appear, suggesting that low-level buying has a supporting effect, but the pace of higher highs is gradually slowing down, highlighting a serious lack of rebound momentum, making it difficult for bulls to organize an effective breakthrough. The current market is caught in a dilemma where support seems to still exist, but the upward driving force is completely exhausted, and the afternoon thought still mainly focuses on high consolidation.

Operation suggestion:
Short near 88400 for Bitcoin, targeting around 87000.
Short near 2985 for Ether, targeting around 2850.

On the morning of November 26

Currently, both bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war, and the pattern of range-bound fluctuations is continuing to solidify. In the short term, there are no clear breakout signals, and the intraday trend is likely to continue the oscillation rhythm. Before the range is effectively broken, it is recommended to short at highs and go long at lows during the day. When rebounds encounter resistance, first position short, and then go long after the drop reaches the support level.

Trading Suggestions
Short at around 87800-88500 for Bitcoin, target 86000
Short at around 2990-3020 for Ethereum, target 2900

On the evening of November 24th

The current market for Bitcoin is showing a clear range fluctuation pattern, with prices oscillating between a strong support level at 81345.3 and a strong resistance level at 89850.1. The technical analysis indicates that the moving average system has formed a golden cross, with both short-term and long-term moving averages trending upwards, enhancing momentum. However, the trading volume has drastically decreased, leading to a divergence between price and volume, suggesting that the upward momentum may be insufficient, and caution is needed regarding the risk of price correction. Additionally, the recent occurrence of a bearish engulfing pattern further reinforces expectations that the market may face downward pressure.

Bitcoin is expected to fluctuate around 86500-87500, with a downward target of 85000.
Ethereum is expected to fluctuate around 2830-2850, with a downward target of 2730.

The afternoon bearish outlook has been successfully validated! The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the ability to accurately capture trends!

On the afternoon of November 24

From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing down. In the short term, Bitcoin is rising with small bullish movements. Although the price has been warming since the support level, it still cannot change the overall downward trend. The strategy is to follow the trend and go long accordingly.

Bitcoin: Long around 87400-88000, target 85000
Ethereum: Long around 2850-2880, target 2750

Bitcoin has begun to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent drop below six figures (100,000 USD) has led people to reassess the near-term outlook. With some key technical and on-chain levels having been lost, I have readjusted my fundamental scenario, stating that the likelihood of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. If key levels are regained, this situation could change rapidly, but until then, market conditions seem to have shifted from a strong bullish trend into a correction phase.

"Buy the Dip"
Bitcoin has seen quite a significant pullback, but buying the dip is not always the best strategy unless it is within a confirmed bull market trend. In a bear market environment, nascent pullbacks can still lead to significant price declines. Short-term and upcoming pullbacks are typical in a downtrend market, making it increasingly important to react based on data rather than preemptively predicting the bottom.

From our chart analysis of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, we can see this repeated pullback pattern. It is also clear that this metric acted as a key resistance during this phase, with sustained rebounds only occurring after BTC regained the short-term holder realized price level.

On the morning of the 24th, the current market is slightly recovering, but the rebound is not a reversal. This rebound is just a normal adjustment after a significant drop. The price of Bitcoin reached a high of around 88100 early in the morning, then faced pressure and fell back. Currently, it has quickly dropped to around 86000. From the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing downwards. In the short term, Bitcoin is showing small upward movements. Although the price has been recovering since it found support, it still cannot change the overall downward trend. The strategy is to follow the trend and take short positions at high levels.

Trading Suggestions
Short Bitcoin around 87000-87600, targeting 85000.
Short Ethereum around 2800-2840, targeting 2740.

Morning all-network bearish outlook is publicly available, and the worry-free layout perfectly captured the short positions, with two transactions netting 22398U!
This wave of market once again verifies that trading is not a physical game of staying up all night watching the market, but rather a competition of vision in choosing the right direction. Following the worry-free rhythm, every entry stands in the safe zone of profit; making money should be this easy!