In the last month, the weather in the cryptocurrency world has been a bit cold. Many people wake up in the morning and the first thing they do is open the app, then their heart skips a beat. That's right, Bitcoin, this 'digital gold' that we both love and hate, has gone through a significant drop, falling from its previous high by an astonishing 30%.
In no time, the group was buzzing with various voices: 'Is the bull market over?' 'Is it going to zero?' 'Quick, buy the dip!' But more people are asking an old yet crucial question: Is the legendary 'four-year cycle' still valid this time?
First, what is happening with this 30% correction?
From the timeline, the fuse of this storm was lit in October. At that time, the Trump administration suddenly announced tariffs on major trading partners, and as soon as the news broke, the global financial market instantly experienced 'panic'. Like a domino effect, the U.S. stock market fell first, and this chill quickly spread to the increasingly correlated crypto market, triggering the so-called '1011 black swan' event, where the liquidation amount in the market exceeded 10 billion U.S. dollars in a single day.
This is just the prelude. Entering November, bad news followed one after another. The Federal Reserve's latest statement shattered everyone's beautiful fantasy of interest rate cuts at the end of the year, clearly stating that 'high interest rates will last longer'. This means that the 'tap' in the market is not only not being opened but may actually be tightened further. Money has become more expensive, and risk assets naturally bear the brunt. Coupled with some signals of institutional capital withdrawal, market sentiment quickly turned from greed to extreme panic.
You can imagine this scenario: a large ship moving at full speed suddenly encounters headwinds (macro-economic tightening), and several big shots on board jump off (institutional sell-off), followed by the passengers panicking and rushing toward the lifeboats (retail sell-off, margin calls). The result is a dramatic tilt of the ship — the Bitcoin price plummeted from nearly $120,000 to below $90,000 in a short time, even dipping to around $80,000.
Therefore, this 30% correction is the result of the 'natural disaster' of macroeconomic issues and the 'man-made disaster' of structural problems within the market acting together. It is a stress test and also a brutal deleveraging process.
Second, what exactly is the four-year cycle?
After talking about the present, let's extend our view and look at history. The so-called 'four-year cycle' is fundamentally the 'halving' mechanism of Bitcoin.
In simple terms, the Bitcoin network has designed a rule to control inflation: approximately every four years, the reward for miners for mining a new block is halved. It's like a fixed-yield gold mine, where the mining difficulty doubles every four years, and the new supply of gold is halved.
Looking back at the past, this halving event was like the 'starting gun' for the bull market:
After the first halving in 2012: it opened the epic bull market.
After the second halving in 2016: it gave birth to the bull market of 2017, allowing Bitcoin to truly 'break out'.
After the third halving in 2020: against the backdrop of global central banks flooding the market, Bitcoin reached a historic high of $69,000.
Historical data shows that after halving, there is usually a 'calm period' or slight correction, followed by a price peak within about 12 to 18 months. After the bull market peaks, it is often accompanied by a bear market adjustment lasting over a year, with declines often exceeding 70%-80%, to build momentum for the next halving.
This script of 'halving → bull market → bear market → bottoming' has been repeated over the past decade, like a precise spell, and thus it is revered as a standard.
Third, this time we are different.
So, the question arises: in 2024 we experienced the fourth halving, and now it is the end of 2025. According to the script, we should be in the main rising phase of the bull market. But does this 30% dip mean that the script has been torn apart?
I believe that it cannot simply be summarized as 'failure'; a more accurate statement is: the cyclical pattern is being rewritten, but its inherent logic still has reference value.
Why do I say this? Because today's Bitcoin is no longer the 'youth' it was four years ago.
First, the players have changed. Previously, the table was mainly occupied by tech geeks and retail speculators. Now, Wall Street's elite in suits are entering the scene with Bitcoin spot ETFs. These ETFs act like huge pumps, continuously siphoning water from traditional financial markets into Bitcoin. This means that Bitcoin's pricing power is no longer solely determined by supply and demand within the crypto circle; it must also heed the 'face' of the global macro economy. When the Federal Reserve coughs, Bitcoin might catch a cold — this is the new normal.
Secondly, the rhythm of the cycle has been disrupted. In traditional cycles, bull markets usually start after halving. But this time, before the 2024 halving, the Bitcoin price has already surpassed its previous high. This is largely due to the early rush of ETFs. The influx of institutional capital has significantly advanced the timing of the bull market, while also making the fluctuations of the cycle more complex and unpredictable.
So, how does this 30% correction rank in history?
If we look at this 30% correction in the long river of history, it is actually not the 'end of the world'. In previous bull markets, corrections of 30% or even larger were commonplace. For example, during the bull market of 2017, there were multiple corrections of 30% to 40%. Even before the halving, the market had also seen adjustments ranging from 25% to 38%. These corrections are like brief rests during a climbing process, meant to shake off the unsteady 'passengers' and make subsequent ascents healthier. From this perspective, this correction is more like a 'mid-term exam' in a bull market rather than a 'graduation ceremony'.
On-chain data also provides some interesting perspectives. Despite the price crash, we see that the Bitcoin network's hash rate (an indicator of network security and miner confidence) remains near historical highs. Meanwhile, during the downturn, there has been a net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating that a large amount of chips are being moved from exchanges to cold wallets, showing that long-term investors (HODLers) are accumulating at lower prices rather than panic selling. This is fundamentally different from the panic selling wave at the beginning of the bear market.
Conclusion: The cycle is not dead; it has merely evolved.
So, back to our initial question: is the four-year cycle spell still effective?
My answer is: the old script is failing, but the underlying logic of the cycle — the supply shock driven by halving — still exists. It's just that, on this basis, more complex variables such as macroeconomics, institutional games, and global regulation are layered on top.
The future Bitcoin cycle may no longer be the clearly defined 'four distinct seasons' of the past, but more like a complex system mixed with 'global macro climates'. It may lengthen, volatility may become more intense, and the peaks of bull markets and troughs of bear markets may no longer be so distinctly separated.
What does this mean for ordinary investors like us?
Give up the fantasy and embrace the volatility. Don't expect to buy in with your eyes closed and then lay back to win for a year and a half. A 30% correction could happen at any time, so managing positions and controlling risks are more important than ever.
Broaden your horizons and pay attention to macro factors. Just staring at K-line charts and crypto news is no longer enough. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, U.S. CPI data, and even geopolitical conflicts can all become key factors affecting the thickness of your wallet.
Return to common sense and trust the network. In the market noise, return to the fundamentals of Bitcoin — a decentralized value network, a continuously growing user base, and an increasingly strong network security. As long as these fundamentals remain, short-term price fluctuations are just scenery along the way.
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