Good afternoon, brothers. Many brothers are still asking about this thing, so I will briefly talk about it. In the short term, it is neutral and volatile; everyone is waiting. At this time, everyone is waiting, which is commonly said as selling you a wave of expectations first, and then giving you a wave of facts. In the medium term, it is biased towards positive but has uncertainties. After all, you have to wait for the facts to be announced to know. Right now, you can only buy expectations. As for those who say they have access to such news, they are not people you or I can reach. What the market is currently announcing is just its own speculation. My post is also my own speculation, not any insider information; I am not capable of that yet.
In the short term, the divergence leads to repeated expectations for rate cuts, and cryptocurrency prices will fluctuate back and forth. It’s not clearly bullish or bearish, more of a 'market oscillation under emotional pull' lacking further certainty. If ultimately there is a rate cut in December (currently there’s a probability), it would basically be a clear bullish signal for liquidity easing supporting cryptocurrency prices.
If interest rates are maintained, it would be a short-term bearish signal (I don't know what you all think, but I have always believed that cryptocurrencies are more of a risk asset, although many say they are safe-haven assets. This has various interpretations depending on how you view it).
In summary, the mid-term trend indeed leans towards 'interest rate cuts being beneficial and the price having room to rise', but this process will definitely be tumultuous. You may feel like you've waited several days with the price hardly changing, but the frequent up-and-down fluctuations might have already washed out your position.
Simply put, it’s about expectations being repeatedly hit. Today, a certain official says 'interest rates can be cut', and BTC rises by 2%, then tomorrow another official says 'let's wait a bit longer', and BTC falls by 3%. This kind of 'news-driven impulsive volatility' can easily make you chase highs and stop losses at lows, making your position lighter and lighter.
Next is the misalignment between sentiment and facts. Even if the market currently believes 'there will be a rate cut in December', when the actual meeting day arrives, it may either be 'the rate cut is less than expected' (suppose it’s only a 25 basis point cut when the market wants 50), or 'after the rate cut, it's directly 'buy the expectation and sell the fact', with the price spiking first and then crashing. If you chase at the high point after the cut, your position will be trapped.
Finally, there is the institutions' 'reverse harvesting', which simply means it goes against human nature. Institutions have long understood the retail investors' habit of 'trading based on news', and will deliberately test key support levels repeatedly, pretending to break them to trigger your stop losses, then pull back to reach new highs. By the time you react, your position is already gone, and you can only watch the price rise.
So the current rhythm is: the mid-term 'bullish pie' is indeed there, but you have to endure the short-term 'oscillation beating'. This kind of market sentiment is also the most exhausting. Don’t just focus on the big direction of 'interest rates will rise', but also combine actual market conditions to interpret the signals of specific support levels being broken or not; otherwise, it’s very likely that 'you got the direction right, but didn’t make any profit, and your position is gone', and in the end, you’re the one who suffers.$BTC 
