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$IRYS 15 points 14-19u
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$RAVE 这么猛
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$BTC 每次政策风暴市场的变化
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$NIGHT 50突然变25
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$BTC $BTCUSDT.P 极大概率12月会以中大阴线报收，甚至可能收带超长上影线的墓碑线/射击之星 3. 近期（1-3个月）最可能的走势 最可能出现的3种路径，按概率排序： 1.（55%） 12月收中大阴线 → 1月、2月继续下探，目标83,000-85,000（0.618回调位）→ 甚至不排除回踩78,000-80,000（前高平台） → 之后再重启上涨，2025年二三季度冲击12-15万新高（牛市5浪） 2（30%） 12月下旬止跌，直接在88,000-92,000区间构筑月线级别底部 → 1月阳线收复失地，延续牛市主升浪 （需要巨量长下影+政策利好配合，当前概率不高） 3（15%） 持续失守90,000并快速下行，跌破80,000 → 进入熊市（概率很低，当前资金面+宏观环境不支持） 短期（12月剩余时间+1月）：明显更适合高空 • 月线级别调整刚开始，空头动能未释放完毕 • 90,000已破，下一道强支撑在83,000-85,000，中间基本无强支撑 • 多军目前处于恐慌抛售+强制平仓状态，容易出现急跌和夜间插针 短期看空到80,000-85,000区域概率最大，中长期依然看涨，但需要等待调整结束的明确信号（比如月线级别的锤头线+放量阳线）再大举做多。 现在不是抄底的好时机，85,000下方就是2025年上半年的黄金多单入场点。
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