2 pieces of quite important data will be announced tonight.

👉 Retail Sales T9: The forecast from the data is quite bad for USD as the figures show a slight decline in this announcement.

👉 PPI Inflation T9: This data is expected to be the most important tonight because it is inflation data, which the Fed is paying close attention to, as it needs to rely on it to make the most accurate decision on whether to change current policy.

Regarding the forecast, if people only look at the figures, they might think it will be good for USD; however, in reality, if the data is only in line with the forecast, this inflation index is just stagnating, as it hovers around 0.2-0.3%, while any spikes or drops in the data are influenced by tariffs.

Therefore, the reference for the data will be in the range of 0.2-0.3%, above 0.3% will be good for USD, below 0.2% will be bad for USD, and finally, the news will be neutral if it is just above the level.