Before the FOMC T12 takes place, there will be a small news announcement tonight.
👉 Labor Costs (Q3): According to the current forecast, the data will remain unchanged at 0.9%.
For me, we are just briefly looking at this data to gain more information, because the data will not significantly impact the market or affect the Rate Cut tonight.
Currently, the rate of interest rate cuts on CME Group remains unchanged at over 87%.
👉 Nothing is certain yet, so the Market will hold its breath and wait for the FOMC Meeting in December to take place tomorrow morning at 2 AM (Vietnam time)
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89.4%.
👉 Although the rate of cuts for the FOMC Meeting T12 has increased in the next 2 days, the entire Market (Gold, Stocks, and others) has decreased because investors are placing bets on the number of cuts by the Fed next year, expecting the Fed to cut about 75 basis points ~ 3 cuts, but since the probability of this happening slightly decreased last night, the entire Market has slightly declined.
👉 For me, such developments only exist in the short term; to gain a clearer view in the long term, new information from Powell in the upcoming speech will be needed for a better perspective.
👉 There is good news that Powell is on the list of supporters for cuts in T12, so the possibility of the Fed cutting during the end of this year is entirely possible.
Important News Next Week 🇺🇸: T2: Economic Data Release T3: Jolts Job Openings 🇺🇸 T4: Economic Data Release T5: FOMC Meeting T12 🇺🇸 Unemployment Benefits Week 🇺🇸 T6: Economic Data Release
Currently, the likelihood of a rate cut remains unchanged (86.2%) after the PCE Inflation data T9 was released.
For next week, the beginning of the week will not have many significant data releases, so it will not have much impact on the rate cut and will also not significantly affect the market.
Regarding the Fed, one may have to wait for the Fed's decision on whether to cut rates in the FOMC Meeting T12, along with the speech from Fed Chair Powell. If he changes his stance unlike in the FOMC Meeting T10, then there may be a strong chance of a rebound since he is also the main factor causing Altcoins and the market to drop sharply as it currently stands.
Countdown to the Fed's decision: Will PCE be the 'final piece' guiding the market at the end of the year?
👉 Wall Street is anxiously awaiting the September PCE report – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – to validate the mixed economic signals seen recently.
👉 While survey data shows weakening consumer confidence and rising recession risks, strong business results and spending during Black Friday reflect sustainable purchasing power. PCE thus becomes important 'hard data' before the Fed's year-end meeting, where the market expects an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
👉 If PCE cools and consumption remains strong, U.S. stocks could continue their year-end recovery.
Fed Powell gave a speech this morning, however, the Fed did not mention anything about monetary policy, interest rates, inflation, and even the rumor that he would resign.
👉 In summary, the speech was unimportant, so the rate cut will remain unchanged, and the market will have to continue waiting for new data to be released tomorrow (today has no news).
The early days of next week will mostly feature minor data releases.
Regarding Powell's speech, we have to wait and see if he mentions any changes to his current stance (not leaning towards the possibility of rate cuts at the FOMC T12), otherwise, this speech will not be as significant as the PCE Inflation (T9) data to be released at the end of next week.
The strategy has spoken to reassure investors about their continuous sell-off of the company's shares due to the ongoing decline in prices, which could expose them to debt risks and force them to liquidate their assets.
👉 To reassure investors, the company stated that even if the price drops to 25k, the total assets they own will still be twice their debt.
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Zelensky accepts Trump's peace framework, ready to negotiate directly on sensitive terms.
👉 Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to advance the peace framework proposed by the U.S. and will directly discuss controversial terms with Trump, particularly the issue of territorial concessions to Russia.
👉 On the U.S. side, Trump mentioned that there are only a few points of disagreement and has sent a special envoy to meet with Putin and the Ukrainian side. Kiev is under significant pressure as the conflict escalates, internal instability increases, and there are concerns about being forced to sign an agreement under Russia's conditions, thus the possibility of Zelensky traveling to the U.S. soon to finalize the plan is significantly increasing.
However, the timeline for peace has not yet been set, and alongside this, Trump continues to go back on his word by stating that Ukraine and Russia will reach an agreement before the U.S. Thanksgiving (27-11-2025), instead he says that "there will be no deadline for this."
2 pieces of quite important data will be announced tonight.
👉 Retail Sales T9: The forecast from the data is quite bad for USD as the figures show a slight decline in this announcement.
👉 PPI Inflation T9: This data is expected to be the most important tonight because it is inflation data, which the Fed is paying close attention to, as it needs to rely on it to make the most accurate decision on whether to change current policy.
Regarding the forecast, if people only look at the figures, they might think it will be good for USD; however, in reality, if the data is only in line with the forecast, this inflation index is just stagnating, as it hovers around 0.2-0.3%, while any spikes or drops in the data are influenced by tariffs.
Therefore, the reference for the data will be in the range of 0.2-0.3%, above 0.3% will be good for USD, below 0.2% will be bad for USD, and finally, the news will be neutral if it is just above the level.