Countdown to the Fed's decision: Will PCE be the 'final piece' guiding the market at the end of the year?

👉 Wall Street is anxiously awaiting the September PCE report – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – to validate the mixed economic signals seen recently.

👉 While survey data shows weakening consumer confidence and rising recession risks, strong business results and spending during Black Friday reflect sustainable purchasing power. PCE thus becomes important 'hard data' before the Fed's year-end meeting, where the market expects an 87% chance the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

👉 If PCE cools and consumption remains strong, U.S. stocks could continue their year-end recovery.