The recent price action for $XRP has undoubtedly tested the resolve of its community. Despite showing flashes of characteristic resilience, the token has faced persistent bearish headwinds over the past few months.
To put it in perspective, XRP has endured six bearish weekly closes out of the last seven. Despite a promising 8% bounce this week, the asset has still seen a drawdown of over 23% during this turbulent period. Even the highly anticipated arrival of XRP ETFs—which have attracted cumulative inflows of over $586 million since mid-November—hasn't been enough to immediately
However, where many retail investors see reason to panic, seasoned market analysts see a familiar setup.
The "Wealth Transfer" Thesis
MichaelXBT, a prominent market analyst known for accurately calling major XRP moves, suggests that the current downturn is not a sign of failure, but rather a necessary market mechanism. In his latest commentary, he argues that this phase is designed to execute a "transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient."
Michael’s track record lends weight to this theory. In July 2024, when XRP was stagnating around the $0.58 mark and sentiment was low, he correctly identified that the altcoin was trading within a massive 7-year bull pennant. He predicted a decisive breakout, which subsequently materialized as XRP soared over 630%, climbing from $0.50 in late 2024 to hit $3.66 by July 2025.
History Repeating?
Currently, $XRP has re-entered a consolidation phase similar to the one that preceded that explosive rally. This stagnation has naturally led to a loss of faith among some market participants—a reaction Michael believes is the primary goal of the ongoing price suppression.
The data supports this view of a divided market:
The Impatient Selling: On-chain data from Glassnode confirmed that profit-taking volume among long-term XRP holders surged to an 8-month high in late July, indicating that investors with lower conviction are exiting their positions.
The Patient Accumulating: Conversely, recent reports indicate that smart money is stepping in. Large XRP "whales" have added approximately $7.7 billion in XRP to their balances since August, absorbing the sell-off.
According to MichaelXBT, this pattern mirrors the build-up to the November 2024 breakout: months of underperformance designed to shake out weak hands while patient accumulators prepare for the next leg up.
While the analyst held off on specific price targets in his latest update, his stance remains that XRP is "ready to surprise everyone again." Previously, he has suggested that the next major move for XRP could be "parabolic" and that prices below the $4 mark may not last long once the momentum shifts.
For $XRP holders, the current market demands a crucial decision: Are you the impatient seller, or the patient accumulator awaiting the surprise?
