The instant noodles soup is cold at 3 AM, and the light from my phone screen reflects my teary eyeliner into two black worms - just as I cleared my positions, the moment I pressed the confirm button, it directly bounced back by 30%. As an analyst who has been in the crypto space for 8 years, I once accurately pinpointed three bull and bear turning points with technical analysis, but that night I completely broke down: the moving averages, patterns, and volume I had studied for ten years shattered more thoroughly than the bowl of noodles I knocked over in my frustration.
After 8 years as a cryptocurrency analyst, I can confidently say the harshest casualties in this market are not the novices who can't understand candlestick charts, but the 'experts' who win technically but get crushed by emotions. 99% of people blame their losses on the 'malicious market', but only those who truly survive understand: you are never fighting the candlesticks; you are battling your own greed, fear, and lucky mindset.
No fluff today, let’s get straight to my 'emotional survival strategy' made with real money, all practical takeaways. Newcomers will save three years of detours after reading this, and veterans will be able to insure their accounts:
1. Core assets are the 'anchor'; don’t get lost in the weeds.
I have seen too many people obsessed with 'finding hundred-fold coins', scouring dozens of new project white papers every day, yet they cannot even figure out the overall market direction. Remember: the rhythm of the entire crypto ecosystem is always dictated by core assets. They are like the 'heartbeat' of the market; most track coins must breathe with it — when core assets are stable, track coins have space to bounce; when core assets fall, even the best concepts must cool down.
My own trading logic is very simple: when I don’t understand the market, I only keep the K line of core assets on the screen and block everything else. In the second half of last year, when the market was a mess, I directly cleared all the miscellaneous coins and only kept the core asset base, successfully avoiding 3 consecutive waterfall crashes, while many of my friends were still chasing after the news of 'certain track about to explode', resulting in losses until they had nothing left.
2. Stablecoins are the 'emotional thermometer'; learn to put the brakes on greed.
The capital flow of stablecoins is more reliable than any panic index. When you notice that stablecoins are suddenly being hoarded (what people often refer to as 'capital fleeing'), it indicates that the market is panicking; conversely, if stablecoins are continuously flowing out, it suggests that greed is starting to spread.
My practical strategy: every time a core asset or quality track coin rises over 40%, I will forcibly convert 30% of the profits into stablecoins — this is not bearish, but a way to put a brake on greed. Last year, there was a track coin I made 60% profit on without taking profits, thinking 'I’ll sell after one more push', but it dropped back to square one in three days. Since then, 'taking profits when I earn' has become my ironclad rule; even if I earn a little less, it’s better than giving profits back to the market.
3. Late night 'bargain window': The golden period for lazy people to make money.
After 8 years, I discovered a secret that no one wants to talk about: from midnight to 1 AM is the best time to 'make money passively'. During this time, Asian retail investors are asleep like pigs, and European and American big shots haven’t yet picked up their coffee; market liquidity is as thin as watered coffee, and prices are prone to 'absurd fluctuations' — it might suddenly drop 10%, or inexplicably rise 15%.
My approach is not to bet on direction but to set limit orders in advance: for example, for quality coins I’m optimistic about, I place a buy order 8%-10% lower than the current price; for coins I hold, I place a sell order 10%-12% higher than the current price. For seven years, I’ve relied on this method to 'pick up' many low-priced chips and sold at many unexpected high points, truly a 'non-overnight money-making secret'.
4. European and American market opening 15 minutes: Understand the 'emotional code' of the market for the day.
Around the opening time in New York (which corresponds to around 8 PM in China), is the market's 'emotional explosion period' — a group of coffee-drinking European and American traders log on, capital starts to move, and the trend of the day is essentially set.
I never follow the crowd; I just hold my coffee and observe for 15 minutes: if there’s continuous capital inflow after the market opens and quality coins rise, it indicates that the sentiment for the day is warm; if the market opens with a crash and no one is buying, it means everyone is avoiding risk. This 15-minute observation can help me avoid 80% of impulsive trades — after all, 'missing out on an uptrend' is less painful than 'getting caught in a downtrend.'
5. Periodic fluctuations are not scary; don’t be frightened by 'Black Friday X'.
Many people think 'Fridays must fall' and 'the beginning of the month must rise', but these are just self-suggestions. The market's volatility is essentially the result of capital settlements and accumulated emotions — for example, many institutions settle on Fridays, so volatility will be greater than usual, but this is not a 'curse', it's a pattern.
I never panic sell just because 'today is Black Friday', nor do I blindly increase my positions because 'the beginning of the month will rise'. The real time to adjust strategies is when the market structure changes — for example, when core assets break key support, or quality coins suddenly drop significantly, that’s when you need to be cautious, not bound by the calendar.
6. Quality assets can withstand pullbacks; don’t throw away 'gold' as if it were 'garbage'.
I once held a Web3 infrastructure coin that dropped 62% in three months. Some people in the fan group called me a 'signal dog', and I lost sleep over my account. But I didn’t average down or cut losses; instead, I printed out the white paper and carefully read it over coffee — confirming that its technical implementation was fine, the team hadn’t run away, and the funds hadn’t been misappropriated; it was just following the market's correction.
As a result, four months later, it not only broke even but also earned 120%. Many people cannot hold quality assets simply because they mistake 'normal pullbacks' for 'going to zero', panic and cut losses, only to watch the coin price reach new highs, hitting their thighs in frustration. Remember: truly valuable assets are like springs; the harder they are pressed, the higher they bounce back, provided that they really have 'elasticity' (which means technical capability and practical implementation).
Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: in the crypto circle, being 'lazy' is more profitable than being 'diligent'.
After 8 years, my most profitable holdings are those assets I’ve almost forgotten the passwords for. While others are busy trading 20 times a day, staying up all night for a 1% fluctuation, I choose to 'lie flat' after a major trend is established — 70% of my positions are adjusted based on emotional perception, and 30% based on technical analysis assistance. When the greed index hits the ceiling, I reduce my positions; when fear spreads, I increase my positions. It’s simple and straightforward, but it has saved me countless detours.
Many people argue with me: 'Aren’t you an analyst? Why don’t you talk about MACD and Bollinger Bands?' — Please! Technical indicators are tools; emotions are the steering wheel! No matter how advanced the tools are, if the steering wheel is mismanaged, you will still crash into a ditch. This market does not reward the smartest people; it only favors the most stable hearts.
Now, I will no longer lose sleep over a single bearish or bullish candlestick, nor will I impulsively follow the crowd because others are flaunting profits. When I learned to coexist with uncertainty, no longer trying to 'beat the market', but to 'follow the market', only then did wealth truly start to gravitate towards me.
Alright, the practical stuff is done; now it’s your turn! The last time you were caught by emotions, was it when you chased high prices? Or cut losses at the bottom? Or was it blindly getting on board out of fear of missing out? Leave your 'bloody and tearful scenes' in the comments, and I’ll draw 3 friends to send my compiled (Emotional Trading Avoidance Handbook) (containing 5 practical cases + 3 mindset adjustment techniques)!#加密市场反弹 $ETH
