The short-term market is a rebound, not a reversal
I think the upcoming market will either enter a short-term bear market or resemble the 'monkey market' of the 1970s in the US stock market, with large fluctuations and big shocks, but not following a trend. In fact, BTC no longer has a bear market in the strict sense of a drop of over 80%, and altcoins have always been in a bear market, so discussing the significance of bull and bear markets is not very meaningful.
I'm mainly looking at two points
First point: The speed and magnitude of this round of decline after October 6 is too fast and too large, with basically no resistance.
A drop of 35% over a month and a half is actually rare. There was one in April 2021, one in 312, and the ancient bears of 2018 and 2019, but relatively speaking, it's uncommon to see such a continuous drop over a month and a half.
So don't talk to me about macro factors, interest rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, liquidity, and so on. I've never been a fan of analyzing the reasons for price fluctuations after the fact; this kind of thing is not useful for trading itself. The market is strong, it's strong; if it's weak, it's weak. Just look at the performance.
The second point: the performance after breaking new highs this year has been really disappointing.
This year, BTC has broken through historical highs 5 times, but the performance in the days following each breakout has been poor. Based on experience, breaking ATH is generally when the market sentiment is at its most exuberant. If it were a real bull market, it shouldn't be pushed back below the breakout point a few days after the breakthrough. This year, apart from the slightly decent breakout to 112K in July, the others have basically just broken through and then lost momentum, unable to hold onto the highs.
Compare it with the performance of a real bull market, like the genuinely strong market in November this year:
After breaking through 73860 on November 6, it hasn't retraced to the breakout price for several weeks; this is what we call a bull market. But how many major breakthroughs have there been this year? They have mostly been breakthrough—retrace—fall below, a series of continuous actions that do not resemble a trending market at all. For these two reasons, my judgment is very simple: the possibility of a wildly bullish market this year is slim; it seems more like a sideways or even weaker rhythm. Just wait for a clear signal to act; in the current environment, impulsiveness is basically equivalent to giving away money.
Altcoins have rebounded well these days.
Here are some typical examples: $ONDO $AAVE $CRV, all of which have consecutive daily green candles and rebound amplitudes within 10% each day. Slow gains in altcoins are the real gains; explosive increases are just for offloading. However, basically no one is paying attention to altcoins in this market; everyone defaults to the value of altcoins being zero. This is also a good thing; no one is looking at the market makers, so there’s no pressure. Currently, it's best to ambush mainstream coins like AAVE, Sol, and UNI, which I have always recommended, holding onto them in the long term and taking the opportunity to gradually bottom-fish some.
So next, if BTC stabilizes, altcoins will still have a decent rebound. As for when altcoins will run, there’s a simple standard: wait for when the gainers list starts showing a bunch of coins with daily increases of over 30%, and a crowd starts shouting that the altcoin season has arrived. At that time, you can consider exiting. Currently, the market is not paying attention to altcoins, so it's still possible to hold onto them for a rebound.
