Tonight may be a watershed moment—above 92000 is spring, or is it a cliff?
The recent price movements have been like a string that is about to snap at any moment. The price has been oscillating back and forth around the 91,000 line, appearing calm, but every pull is accumulating directional strength.
U.S. stocks will have an early market close tonight, and the liquidity is cooling; however, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have risen to 86.9%, and the market's 'optimistic bubble' has not burst. In terms of sentiment, the fear index has risen to 22; retail investors are not panicking but are also hesitant to act—this is exactly the atmosphere that the main players prefer: quiet, clean, and easy to manipulate.
From a technical perspective, the price has touched the resistance level above 92000 for two consecutive days without an effective breakthrough. The trading volume has shrunk, and the RSI is stagnating at a high level, indicating a clear short-term overbought condition. The support level below is the 90500–90000 range, which is the last support of the 4-hour upward channel. If there is not enough volume above, it is very easy to form a daily structure of double tops.
In other words: tonight we either break through 92000 and rush towards 94000, or we stage a false breakout in the 92500–93000 range and then violently pull back to the 89500 range.
From the perspective of volume and rhythm, I am more inclined towards the second scenario. Trading is light before the holiday, and there is insufficient liquidity during the holiday; without new funds, there can be no new market trend—if we push up tonight but the volume does not follow, that spike might just be the 'last heat'.
It is recommended to lightly short around 92500, with a stop-loss above 93500, targeting the 90500–90000 range, with an extreme target at the 89500 line. If the market strongly increases volume and stabilizes above 93000, then promptly stop-loss and exit, waiting for the next structure to re-enter.
