琉生RYUSEI

Tonight may be a watershed moment—above 92000 is spring, or is it a cliff?

The recent price movements have been like a string that is about to snap at any moment. The price has been oscillating back and forth around the 91,000 line, appearing calm, but every pull is accumulating directional strength.

U.S. stocks will have an early market close tonight, and the liquidity is cooling; however, the expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have risen to 86.9%, and the market's 'optimistic bubble' has not burst. In terms of sentiment, the fear index has risen to 22; retail investors are not panicking but are also hesitant to act—this is exactly the atmosphere that the main players prefer: quiet, clean, and easy to manipulate.

From a technical perspective, the price has touched the resistance level above 92000 for two consecutive days without an effective breakthrough. The trading volume has shrunk, and the RSI is stagnating at a high level, indicating a clear short-term overbought condition. The support level below is the 90500–90000 range, which is the last support of the 4-hour upward channel. If there is not enough volume above, it is very easy to form a daily structure of double tops.

In other words: tonight we either break through 92000 and rush towards 94000, or we stage a false breakout in the 92500–93000 range and then violently pull back to the 89500 range.

From the perspective of volume and rhythm, I am more inclined towards the second scenario. Trading is light before the holiday, and there is insufficient liquidity during the holiday; without new funds, there can be no new market trend—if we push up tonight but the volume does not follow, that spike might just be the 'last heat'.

It is recommended to lightly short around 92500, with a stop-loss above 93500, targeting the 90500–90000 range, with an extreme target at the 89500 line. If the market strongly increases volume and stabilizes above 93000, then promptly stop-loss and exit, waiting for the next structure to re-enter.
#加密市场观察 #加密市场反弹

12.1 Monday Afternoon Pancake Market Analysis

After a continuous decline from midnight to noon, the price has dropped more than 5000 points from a high of 91800, currently finding support around the 86000 level. The 15-minute and 1-hour EMA7 and EMA30 are still diverging bearishly, and the middle BOLL band continues to press down, indicating that the overall situation is still in a weak consolidation phase after a decline. There has not been a significant increase in trading volume, and the short-term rebound momentum is insufficient, suggesting that the market is still in a "bear control, weak volatility" rhythm.
As long as it does not effectively stand above 87200, we will still focus on a bearish outlook. The support below is in the 85500—85000 range; if it is breached, it may extend to around 84200; if there is a volume increase below, there is a possibility of a short-term corrective rebound.

Operational Suggestions:
Short positions near 87200 with light leverage, stop loss above 87600, target looking at 85800—85000. If 85500 is quickly breached, look towards 84200 or even lower.
$BTC

The big crash, what was coming, cannot be avoided.

At that time, Bitcoin was at 91700, Ethereum at 3040, and Liu Sheng only marked two resistance levels, 93000 and 3100. The market then turned at those two points, Bitcoin fell more than 6000 points, and Ethereum dropped nearly 300 points, with a clean and decisive trend.

There is not much need for excessive explanation; volume, rhythm, sentiment, structure—all aligned at that moment. Some positions are not calculated but are where the market itself has reached a peak.
$BTC
$ETH

The K-line may deceive, but emotions do not.

At that time, many people were still saying: "It's already rebounded to 92,000, are we still looking for a pullback?"
And now? An evening to morning bearish candlestick, a clean and swift realization of a 4000-point space.

In that article, I mentioned three points: the current rebound is more like a technical repair rather than an emotional reversal; the fear index remains around 20, indicating that the main force has not changed positions; once it breaks below 90,000, the market will face a second bottom test.

Looking back now, all three points were accurate. Market fear has not retreated, confidence has not been established, and capital continues to flow out. The bottom is not formed by a decline, but by the clearing of fear.

Every sharp rise in the short term is just a breath, not a turning point. Just like now, the EMA7 and EMA30 have formed a death cross with increased volume pressing down, making the rhythm of the bear counterattack unmistakably clear. Looking at BOLL again, the lower track is continuously opening, and the downward trend is still ongoing.

In fact, I do not like the "prophet"-style boasting; I just want to make one point—analysis is not fortune-telling; analysis is about understanding market logic in advance. The market has validated this, indicating that the logic is correct.

So don't ask me if this is the bottom. The real bottom has never been proven by a "rebound" but by the complete freezing point of emotions. This wave of decline is not an accident; it is a delayed correction.
$BTC

12.1 Monday Morning Pancake Market Analysis

The morning price was under pressure and fell back above 91900 last night, continuously dropping to around 90500, indicating a return to a weak trend in the short term.
From the hourly level, EMA7 and EMA30 have once again crossed negatively, indicating that the upward momentum is exhausted; the upper Bollinger Band has clear resistance, and the middle band has been pushed down to around 91200; the current price is operating below the middle band, further establishing a weak fluctuation structure.
From a structural perspective, the spike to 91900 last night was a typical false breakout, and the market has now entered a corrective downward channel. If it cannot quickly regain above 91000, there is still room for further decline.

Trading Suggestions:
Short lightly in the range of 90900–91100; set a stop loss above 91500, with a target looking toward the 90200–89800 range. If it effectively breaks below 89800 and remains under pressure, then extend the outlook to the 89000–88500 line.

$BTC

Still the same words, Liu Sheng's precise layout will only come late, but it will come. If you want to discuss the market trends in December with Liu Sheng, you can find me through the chat room. In the second half of this month, Liu Sheng has indeed rarely referred to himself as having 'precise points and unique vision', but next month, I will definitely be reborn from the ashes!
The entry threshold is 5000U, no membership fee, no profit sharing, only need to operate on the same platform, only recruiting friends with execution ability, serious inquiries only!
$BTC
$ETH

As an analyst, what’s wrong with only reporting good news and not the bad?

Sometimes I find the comments section amusing. Some people see my precise layouts over several days, my intraday reviews, and my accurate points, and they start calling me the "Master of Eternal Profit," as if I’m withdrawing money from an ATM every day.

But the truth is, I have indeed lost quite a bit, it’s just that—I don’t share it.

Not because I’m pretending, and not because I’m afraid some dogs will see it, but because there’s always that group that only focuses on your mistakes and bites at them, while completely ignoring your precise judgments and the logic behind your advance layouts. When I lose once, they cheer, but when I win ten times, they pretend not to see it.

So why should I give them a stage to perform? Even professionals can throw a few jabs underneath, and those who report losses can make a bigger fuss.

I never deny losses; I just understand better that reporting good news and not the bad is not pretense, but a choice. Those who truly understand the market can see the logic, stop-loss, and counter-moves in every step I take. And those who don’t understand, even if I lay out all the details, will still only focus on the gains and losses of that one transaction.

So, in the future, I will continue to only share what should be shared, discussing analysis, rhythm, and results. No explanations, no complaints, no sensationalism. The market will change, people's hearts will be chaotic, but I know that silent analysis is more valuable than noisy comments.
$BTC

The wonderful replay of the beginning of the month, the short position on the pancake only lasted half a day, capturing a space of 3500 points, securing 140,000 in oil. Clearly, it started off so well, yet it became more and more difficult towards the end of the month.
$BTC

The only person this month who achieved a tenfold return with me is not someone who joined Liu Sheng this month; I can only say that the market conditions at the beginning of the month supported the confidence in the return. On the 28th, a deposit of 40,000 was made, and by the 4th, it closed at 400,000. This is Liu Sheng's strength!
$BTC

In November, there was indeed a period when being pricked by needles was quite annoying and damaging, and then the morale of the returned status was actually also brought about by the needles. One can only say that the market this month is truly difficult to navigate; no matter which step is taken, problems are likely to arise. However, good things always happen.
The short position on Bitcoin took down 1500 points, earning nearly 60,000 in oil!
$BTC

The fluctuations of Ether are always striking, and the 40 points of defense are simply insufficient. Only by holding the top and bottom can one have the confidence to profit. Entered long at 3039 in the middle of the month, exited at 3091, and made 20,000 oil in less than 2 hours!
$ETH

Looking back at this month, there are indeed very few precise layouts that can be mentioned, but there have been some highlight moments, almost accurately laying out the high points and entry points, capturing a full range!
$ETH

November Ethereum Monthly Summary

This month, Ethereum started at around 3900. With the overall market sentiment being weak and liquidity tightening, it experienced a drop from high to low — hitting a low of about 2620–2650, a decline of more than 30%. Subsequently, although the price experienced a rebound, recovering to around 3030–3050, the overall structure remains weak.

From the chart, the moving average structure has not yet formed a bullish arrangement, with EMA7 and EMA30 both applying pressure from above, indicating that bulls have not yet gained control; the Bollinger Bands are converging, with the middle band clearly exerting pressure, and the upper band still distant, indicating a lack of sufficient upward momentum; during the rebound, trading volume and capital inflow have not recovered in sync, lacking trend cooperation, resembling more of a passive repair / technical rebound.

In other words, this round of increase is not a trend reversal, but a phase of oscillation repair after a decline.

To be honest, this month I was really 'scared' by Ethereum. Every layout was very logical — support, resistance, and stop-loss levels were all clearly set, yet the market just had to take me as a demonstration account. In the most outrageous instances, I made the right choices for support and resistance, but the market always had to just hit my stop-loss level by that little bit — even though I calculated it correctly, I always ended up 'being educated by the system.'

Through this wave, I truly experienced what it means: the analysis is correct, but the market just wants to mess with you.

Combining structure and sentiment, my judgment for Ethereum next week is: short-term oscillation is weak, the trend has not yet reversed, and I am mainly bearish.

Bullish rebounds lack volume support, with EMA and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continuing to apply pressure; although sentiment has somewhat repaired, capital flow remains cautious; without new capital entering or strong volume, prices are likely to continue oscillating in the 2850–3200 range, and we cannot rule out the possibility of another retest of lower levels.

Support is not a moat, and stop-loss is not a talisman.
In the crypto market, being logically correct does not mean one can make money.

My biggest gain this month is not profit, but the realization —
No matter how wild the market is, one must remain calm; no matter how accurate the points are, one must accept the occasional 'hit'; after all, in this market, even being correct has to consider timing.

Next week, I still hold a bearish view, but what is always harder to control than the market is one's own emotions.
$ETH

November Summary of Big Cake

This month's big cake has dropped sharply and been repaired cautiously. From 116000, it fell all the way to 80600, almost swallowing the annual increase in one breath. However, because the drop was thorough, it laid the foundation for this wave of rebound with "repair".

The whole month can almost be divided into two parts: the first half of the month was a "panic waterfall," and the second half was a "calm repair." After touching 80600 on November 19, it began to stop falling and rebound, stabilizing above 91000 by the end of the month, completing the transition from "collapse" to "breathing".

However, the core driving force of this rebound still comes from short covering and emotional repair, rather than a trend reversal. Although EMA7 has risen above 90000, EMA30 is still firmly pressing above 95000. The distance between moving averages is too large, and the trading volume has not effectively increased, indicating that this is just a technical repair, not a primary rising segment.

BOLL's middle track is slowly pressing down to 91900, and the daily K-line has repeatedly failed to break through, indicating that there is still strong resistance above. In the short term, the rebound is indeed strong, but overall it still operates under a bearish structure. In other words, this is a "rebound during a decline," not an "increase after a rebound."

I have been waiting for the "second bottom test," and it seems that although the price has not retested the 80,000 range, the structure has not ruled out this possibility. Once 90500 or 89500 is lost, it is possible to test the 85000–87000 range again, and that will be the real moment for bottom building.

The fear index fell to a monthly low of 10, and even if it rebounds to 20 this week, it is still in the "panic zone." The market's calm is not a return of confidence, but a decline in trading willingness. This means that the main force is still observing, and retail investors are numb. With emotions not restored and trading volume not rebounding, this wave of rebound is destined to be "light and floating," without roots.

The key intervals are above 93000–94000 and below 90000–89500. The short-term rhythm is still mainly based on "range games." If it breaks through 94000 with volume, it can look towards 96500–98000; if it breaks below 90000 and volume increases under pressure, beware of the formal start of the "second bottom test."

The rebound is still just a rebound, and the bottom may not have truly been reached yet.
I am still waiting for that "true second test long shadow."
Before that, all upward movements are just tests.
$BTC

Today's market is quite interesting. I mentioned this morning that around 91000 is the turning point of sentiment, so I went short with a light position and planned to buy more if it dropped.

As a result, the trend followed the script completely: in the afternoon, it hit a low around 90600 and then the bulls slowly climbed back up, directly rushing to 91900 in the evening. At that moment, I actually knew that today's rhythm was right.

Although this upward movement looks beautiful, it essentially remains a correction within the range. The upper Bollinger Band is opening, but the volume does not follow; although EMA7 has crossed above EMA30, it hasn't accelerated. In other words, this is a rhythm of "short-term rebound, not changing the volatility." At this point in the market, there is space but weak direction; more of a victory of rhythm rather than a victory of trend.

I took the low long position in the morning to catch the rebound and anticipated the pressure point in the evening. This back and forth secured a steady 900-point gain. Many people are still confused about whether to go long or short, but in my view, in such a volatile market, direction is not the key; rhythm is. Hitting the right range once is equivalent to winning the whole day.

Sometimes the market feels like a psychological battle; others look at candlesticks, but I look at the rhythm. Only those who can stay steady can win more.
$BTC

Why has Liusheng been targeting this student for posting? Because currently, the only student worth posting about here is this one. Unfortunately, this student also withdrew five hundred thousand oil yesterday, so it's estimated that they won't be back before the New Year.
Therefore, Liusheng is issuing a recruitment notice here! If you want to sign up for Liusheng's December tenfold capital increase plan, please refer to the introduction/image 3 for consultation. There is no membership fee, just operate on the same platform, with a threshold of 5000U, only friends with execution ability are welcome! Please do not disturb if not serious!
$BTC

At midnight, the floating profit of seventy thousand oil did not require the students to pay, because Liu Sheng knew that the final result would be no less than seventy thousand oil. Sure enough, the difference between the two was thirteen thousand oil. Is this gap enough for the students to buy a few more LV?
$BTC

The pancake market in the past few days is still basically under calculation, so taking a bite of two thousand points and eighty thousand oil is just Liu Sheng acting according to the trend. Opportunities never wait for anyone, and some people are born to seize opportunities!
$BTC

Last night's strategy was: to attempt a short position with a light position in the range of 90200–90400, with a stop loss set below 89800, and a target of 91500–91800.

From the results, the market found support around 90500, then steadily rose, reaching a maximum just below 91200, successfully realizing about 700 points of space.

In a volatile market, rhythm is often more important than direction—"focus on a segment, hold steady on a position"—which is more effective than blindly chasing gains or losses.
Steadiness is the strongest strategy.
$BTC

11.30 Sunday Big Pancake Market Analysis

Current price is about 90700. Weekend trading volume is relatively weak, with prices oscillating within a narrow range of 90500-91000; the middle track of the 1-hour BOLL is slowly pressing down, and EMA7 is consolidating with EMA30, representing a typical "converging wait for direction." As long as it does not break through and stabilize above 91200 with increased volume, the short-term approach will still be based on the trading range; support levels below are 90200 and 89700.

Operation Suggestions:
Short sell lightly near 91000, stop loss above 91500, target 90500-90200. Try low buy near 90200 with stop loss at 89900 and target 90800-91100.

If it breaks above 91200 with increased volume and does not break upon pullback, follow the trend for long positions, target 91800-92300, stop loss below 91000. If it effectively breaks below 90200 and bears pressure, follow short to see 89700-89300, with stop loss above 90400.
$BTC