November Ethereum Monthly Summary
This month, Ethereum started at around 3900. With the overall market sentiment being weak and liquidity tightening, it experienced a drop from high to low — hitting a low of about 2620–2650, a decline of more than 30%. Subsequently, although the price experienced a rebound, recovering to around 3030–3050, the overall structure remains weak.
From the chart, the moving average structure has not yet formed a bullish arrangement, with EMA7 and EMA30 both applying pressure from above, indicating that bulls have not yet gained control; the Bollinger Bands are converging, with the middle band clearly exerting pressure, and the upper band still distant, indicating a lack of sufficient upward momentum; during the rebound, trading volume and capital inflow have not recovered in sync, lacking trend cooperation, resembling more of a passive repair / technical rebound.
In other words, this round of increase is not a trend reversal, but a phase of oscillation repair after a decline.
To be honest, this month I was really 'scared' by Ethereum. Every layout was very logical — support, resistance, and stop-loss levels were all clearly set, yet the market just had to take me as a demonstration account. In the most outrageous instances, I made the right choices for support and resistance, but the market always had to just hit my stop-loss level by that little bit — even though I calculated it correctly, I always ended up 'being educated by the system.'
Through this wave, I truly experienced what it means: the analysis is correct, but the market just wants to mess with you.
Combining structure and sentiment, my judgment for Ethereum next week is: short-term oscillation is weak, the trend has not yet reversed, and I am mainly bearish.
Bullish rebounds lack volume support, with EMA and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands continuing to apply pressure; although sentiment has somewhat repaired, capital flow remains cautious; without new capital entering or strong volume, prices are likely to continue oscillating in the 2850–3200 range, and we cannot rule out the possibility of another retest of lower levels.
Support is not a moat, and stop-loss is not a talisman.
In the crypto market, being logically correct does not mean one can make money.
My biggest gain this month is not profit, but the realization —
No matter how wild the market is, one must remain calm; no matter how accurate the points are, one must accept the occasional 'hit'; after all, in this market, even being correct has to consider timing.
Next week, I still hold a bearish view, but what is always harder to control than the market is one's own emotions.
