📉 Overall, the market is recovering… but still is a recovery in a downtrend. The most uncomfortable feeling right now is: the worst seems to have passed, but the best has not yet come.
#BTC bounced from 86k → 91k but RSI, Volume, and candle structure all indicate this is a weak rebound.
- Fear & Greed is still at 20: a high level of fear but not yet a macro bottom.
- Altcoin Index 21/100, CMC20 is still lightly red… => the money flow has not returned, top coins are still being sold steadily.
My personal portfolio is also down -20%, probably not different from others. But such a fragile rebound often still has 1–2 waves large enough for everyone to restructure and regain positions.
$BTC at this moment is standing in front of the key area with 2 possible scenarios:
1/ Break up and close candles stable at 95-98k: the market may activate a short-squeeze towards 100–105k. And if it decisively surpasses 100k, the medium-term downtrend structure will be broken, and the market will enter a new phase.
2/ Reject: the price may return to 78–75k or deeper at 70–80k. The current structure is still Lower High Lower Low and BTC has not reclaimed EMA50/EMA89, so the outlook for the next 2–5 weeks still leans towards bearish.
+ The macro situation is also quite ironic: the probability of the Fed cutting rates is 87%, only 12 days left until the meeting, but the price does not react => large money is still not willing to take risks.
#Altcoin can only rebound strongly when BTC surpasses 100k and maintains a stable sideways, or when the market creates a macro bottom. Neither of these signals has appeared yet.
I know this period is exhausting, many friends have cut losses and left.
The most important thing right now is to preserve capital, maintain awareness, not go all-in, know how to restructure the portfolio and wait for the right moment.
I believe that 2026 will have many greater opportunities than 2021 or 2024 and it will be for those who are patient enough to survive until then.
G.luck to yourself and the remaining friends!
