November 29, 2025 ｜ Personal observation notes

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📊 This week's trend: Stabilization is better than a sharp rise

• Bitcoin holds steady at the $90,000 mark, although it hasn't made a strong attack, the stop-loss signal is clear

• Ethereum barely stands above $3000, weak consolidation brewing momentum

• At the current stage, 'not falling' is a favorable signal, laying the foundation for future rebounds

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💡 Core logic: Interest rate cuts remain a key catalyst

The market's expectation for interest rate cuts is not blind:

✅ The current liquidity environment and interest rate cuts = direct benefit, not 'good news fully priced in'

✅ If implemented, it will effectively alleviate funding pressure and promote valuation recovery

⚠️ But beware of short-term fluctuations caused by changing expectations

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⚙️ My strategy: Grid + options selling to cope with a volatile market

Strategy selection Applicable logic Risk warning

Grid trading Clear accumulation range, understanding horizontal fluctuations Need to reserve sufficient margin

Options seller Stable earnings from time value decay Hedge against black swan events

Underlying logic:

1. Time is needed to build a bottom after a sharp drop; the probability of a direct V-shaped reversal is low

2. Limited downside space, higher safety margin in the grid

3. In a liquidity tightening phase, earning 'time value' is more prudent

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🎯 Stage outlook and suggestions

• Short term (1-2 months): Focus on consolidation with opportunities concentrated in structural trends

• Medium term: After interest rate cuts, a new round of trend opportunities may begin

• Operational advice:

◦ Retain cash, patiently dollar-cost average into quality assets

◦ Reduce leverage, avoid emotional trading

◦ Shift focus to life, the market adjustment period is also the 'charging period' for investors

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🌱 Out-of-the-box thinking: The industry temperature behind the Hong Kong fire

The active donations from institutions and individuals in the crypto circle show us that:

• The decentralized world has not eliminated responsibility and empathy

• The industry is gradually carrying more social value as it grows

This sense of responsibility may reflect another aspect of the blockchain spirit.

Follow Chen Xi to navigate the B circle✅ #加密货币 #新手小白 #香港 #币圈

（This article is a personal observation note and does not constitute investment advice）