Next month, 23 billion in options will be settled! A single institution has already bet 1.7 billion USD that BTC must close within this range by the end of the year!

100K in a deadlock battlefield, will it kneel below 85K? Currently all written in this options data from December 26...

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Today's 13 billion in options has just settled, and next month's December 26 will see the largest options settlement in history -- a notional amount of 23 billion USD.

This is not just a quarterly settlement, but can be considered an annual settlement.

With so much money already on the table, how do you think institutions will play?

Let's take a look....

【First, let's look at this wave of options positions】

The call side is concentrated at the following positions (Figure 1 blue bars)

100000, 106000, 112000, 118000

Conclusion: This distribution of positions above 100K every 6000 points shows that the market is not only betting that today's price will return above 100K but is also constructing positions through various spread combinations.

It may include some naked longs, and there are also structured combinations like call spreads / call condors, not just a simple market betting on a huge surge.

Such a large position nearby hedging behavior will also lead to even if the price breaks through 100K, there will be a new pressure wall encountered every 6000 points above.. (100000, 106000, 112000, 118000)

Especially 100K itself is also a place that needs various hedging pressures to be repeatedly ground (in the absence of significant positive news).

The put side is mainly concentrated at 85000 and 80000 (yellow bars in the figure)

Conclusion: In today's settled options for 11.28, there was a large position originally at 90000. However, in 11.28, the position here is very low..

Indicating that while 90000 has been a psychological support in the past couple of days, after today's options settlement, a heavy defense has not formed here.

The defensive focus and contest range in the derivatives market are more inclined towards 85000..

【The biggest pain point is currently near 100000】

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