#Pippin #PIPPINUSDT #ETH #BTC (1-hour cycle) Market Analysis Report
I. Trend Structure (1H)
PIPPIN continues to maintain a strong bullish trend, with prices rising from the range of 0.088–0.09 all the way up to 0.13690, and after a high retracement, it remains in the range of 0.131–0.133. From the moving average structure, MA7, MA25, and MA99 are in a standard bullish arrangement, and the 1-hour candlestick chart consistently operates above MA7, indicating that the trend is still in the main upward wave phase.
The trading volume maintains an increase during the upward trend, contracting during pullbacks, fully conforming to the structure of a strong trend market. The MACD extends upward, with the momentum bars remaining positive, and there are no obvious top divergence signals.
Summary: 1-hour trend remains strong, bulls are clearly in control, and no reversal signs have appeared.
II. Whales and smart money (capital structure)
1. Whale positions increase significantly: Total whale positions 26.9M, with 75 whales long, holding 24.06M, with unrealized profits exceeding 11 million USD, indicating that large players still firmly hold bullish views, and no large-scale distribution of chips has occurred.
2. Smart money is also biased towards long: Profitable positions are 24.7M, average holding price 0.071–0.072, continuing to profit significantly. The losing positions are smaller, with average prices in the range of 0.095–0.096, which has not yet triggered systemic selling pressure.
3. Short-term net inflow remains positive: Whales net buy about +72K in 30 minutes, smart money net buy about +147K, indicating that large short-term funds are still betting on the continuation of the rise.
Conclusion: All key capital side signals still stand on the bullish side, with a high probability of trend continuation.
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III. Contract structure (1H)
1. Open interest (OI) rises while price increases: This is a typical main upward wave structure, indicating new long positions are continuously joining, rather than inducing long positions.
2. Large trader long-short ratio significantly increases: From the 0.38–0.40 range to 0.42–0.44 range, positions and account ratios are leaning towards long.
3. Active buying pressure exceeds selling pressure: The active buying bars are significantly higher than the active selling bars, indicating that the rise is not a weak rebound but a real capital drive.
4. Basis changes from negative to positive and stabilizes: This indicates that contract bulls are willing to pay funding rates, showing a healthy trend.
Overall: The contract structure and capital behavior are completely consistent, both are typical forms of a bullish trend.
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IV. Key price levels (1H)
Short-term pressure: 0.1369 (previous high)
Breakthrough resistance: 0.140–0.150 (whole number level)
Strong support: 0.121–0.123 (near MA7)
Trend support: 0.105–0.110 (MA25 area)
1-hour structure remains unchanged provided it does not break below 0.121.
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V. 15-minute trading suggestions (can be executed directly)
1. Long strategy (primarily trend-following)
(1) Re-test to go long (highest win rate)
When the price retests 0.121–0.123 (1H MA7 + 15M center):
Can enter long if any two of the following conditions are met:
15M volume decreases
A K-line with a long lower shadow appears, indicating a stop in the decline
MACD 15M Golden Cross
Target: 0.136 → 0.145
Stop loss: Break below 0.118
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(2) Chase long on breakout
Price strongly breaks through 0.137–0.138, and does not fall below 0.132–0.134 on 15M retest:
Go long when a solid bullish candle appears again.
Target: 0.145–0.150
Stop loss: Break below 0.128
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2. Short strategy (against the trend, only short-term)
Can only short if the following conditions are met:
1H breaks below 0.121
15M shows two consecutive large bearish candles
OI drops in sync with price decline (position reduction drop = real drop)
Target: 0.105–0.110
Stop loss: Return above 0.123
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3. Wait-and-see zone (no entry allowed)
If any of the following situations arise, signals must be awaited:
Price remains in the range of 0.128–0.133 for more than 45 minutes
15M multiple false breakouts (upper shadow exceeds 2%)
Whale net sell suddenly over 200K in 30 minutes
Basis quickly turns negative
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VI. Summary
PIPPIN is currently in a strong trend upward wave, all core capital signals continue to look bullish.
Key support at 0.121 does not break → Trend continues upwards.
If it breaks through 0.137 in the short term, it may initiate the next round of rapid ascent.
15-minute operation core:
Go long at 0.121 retest, chase long at 0.137 breakout, only short if breaking below 0.121.
