A few days ago, many brothers saw me bottom-fishing after breaking 82000 and followed suit. The most frequently asked question recently is 'Where to sell on the rebound?'
I have also been contemplating this question myself: Is it 98000? Or 108000? Is there another possibility that perhaps selling is not even necessary?
These past few days, I have integrated most of the current market information and come up with an outrageous logic:
The bull market a year after the Bitcoin halving has actually been artificially delayed by Powell. Perhaps Bitcoin has never really had a four-year cycle; everything just happens to correspond with a four-year liquidity cycle, and we are all turkeys raised by the farmers.
The biggest consensus kills the most pigs. When everyone thinks that the Q4 after the halving will have an accelerated market and altcoin season, a bloodbath of 1011 along with a -35% drop caught most people off guard. And will next year, traditionally a bear market year in the four-year cycle, go against the tide and rise, or even rise crazily?
I think — yes.
The reasons for the restoration or even flooding of liquidity next year are as follows:
1. The main driving forces behind Bitcoin's rise in the past two years: spot ETFs + coin-stock companies. With ETF inflows decreasing and companies like MicroStrategy facing premium correction bottlenecks, most people might think it has reached its peak.
But the real big holders haven't moved a penny, and that is the national sovereign funds. The U.S. strategic reserves and the stablecoin bill will be implemented next year, followed closely by other governments, pensions, and countries continuing to empower (previously discussed might be used for debt relief bit-bonds, link below). This buyer is exponentially stronger than the spot ETFs and coin-stock companies.
https://x.com/lxrcr1201/status/1907518883298418956
2. Stop QT, this has been discussed by many, so I won't elaborate. The correlation chart of QT, interest rates, and Bitcoin price trends is below.
3. Continuous interest rate cuts. After the change in the Fed chair, the cuts will be even more reckless. Under such high debt of the U.S. government, it may also allow inflation to exceed 2%, facilitating the depreciation of the dollar.
4. I cite the article's SLR reform, which I call a 'silent' major event in financial history. Interested parties can read about the history of SLR reform and its relationship with Bitcoin price trends. In summary, it was created due to the 2008 financial crisis, and the regulations were lifted due to COVID, combined with QE leading to a flooding of market liquidity, which created the brilliance of Bitcoin reaching 69000.
5. The potential for QE by the Federal Reserve, after SLR reform, there’s also a super buyer of U.S. Treasuries, which is the Federal Reserve. Why does America need so much money? The 'Genesis Plan' signed by Trump a few days ago claims it is as significant as the 'Manhattan Project.' You can check how much the first atomic bomb cost yourself; the investment concerning America's fate will be an astronomical amount.
In summary, from the perspective of the liquidity cycle, a super bull market is on the way, and 2026-2027 will be a year of super liquidity flooding, rather than a bear market year in the four-year cycle.
I choose to pay for my own cognition, it's a mess.
