Written in advance: The game of encryption will be at the Next Lever starting today.
Cognitive level determines the magnitude of wealth. If you cannot see the big trend, no amount of effort will be fruitful.
From 5 to 7 to 10 ministries... and now, the regulatory intensity has been strengthened to a joint statement from 13 ministries.
But this time the most critical aspect is not the increase in quantity, but the radical change in nature: it is no longer led by the central bank, but by the Ministry of Public Security.
This means that issues previously seen as 'financial risks' are now officially elevated to matters of public security, network issues, and even criminal issues.
And all of this happens to coincide precisely with the prevailing narrative of the 'four-year cycle' within the circle.
This is not only the cycle of the market but also an excellent window for us to enhance our understanding and examine our decisions.
The pulse of the market and the heartbeat of regulation
Looking back at the price trends from 2011 to 2025, you will feel the pulse of the market.
Fluctuations in rise and fall, but the trajectory is clear: every four years a peak, and every four years a trough.
This corresponds almost perfectly with the 'halving' mechanism.
However, what truly deserves to be elevated to the level of understanding is another synchronized 'cycle':
December 5, 2013: Five ministries → First time explicitly stating 'Bitcoin is not currency'
September 4, 2017: Seven ministries → Comprehensive ban on ICO
September 24, 2021: Ten ministries → Comprehensive rectification of trading and mining
November 29, 2025: Thirteen ministries
The natural cycles of the market highly overlap with the artificial cycles of regulation, which is no coincidence.
Regulation always acts when market enthusiasm and risk accumulation reach a critical point.
The greatest risk often hides within the greatest opportunity; and top-level understanding lies in recognizing when risk shifts from 'probability' to 'inevitability'.
From 'risk warning' to 'legal iron fist'
The strength of this change far exceeds that of the past. The greatest impact comes from the following three points:
Change in ordering: the Ministry of Public Security takes the lead for the first time
Previously, it was all about the central bank, meaning that financial regulation was prioritized.
This time, the Ministry of Public Security is first, and the Cyberspace Administration is also ahead of the central bank.
The signal is extremely clear: the core has shifted from preventing 'financial risk' to combating 'illegal crime'.
The focus of regulation has undergone a complete shift from 'fines' to 'handcuffs'.
Change in focus: the status of the Cyberspace Administration has been prioritized
The focus of the crackdown is no longer just on 'trading behavior' itself, but on:
Tracking and monitoring of on-chain information flows
Penetrating management of capital flows
Platform information responsibility and network communication governance
China has officially entered the 'on-chain regulatory era' synchronized with Europe and the United States.
Every on-chain transaction may become evidence for future judgments.
Change in legislation: emergence of key eight-character truth
The document mentions the phrase 'improve policies and legal basis'.
This indicates that in the next 1-2 years, there is a high probability of a specific judicial interpretation emerging, even driving related legislation.
In other words: what was 'illegal' in the past may become 'criminal' in the future.
This marks the end of an era.
The window for reckless running and gray survival is closing.
Any future investment and professional behavior must be considered under the 'legal premise'; this is the bottom line of understanding.
Precisely locked 'seven inches'
The document emphasizes 'stablecoins'.
In the eyes of regulators, stablecoins → the extension of the US dollar in the digital world → the gray channel for cross-border capital.
This is the part that truly touches the nerve.
The future heavy blows will certainly be aimed here:
1. Tighten channels for deposits and withdrawals
2. Strengthen tracking of on-chain transactions
3. Strictly investigate illegal OTC actions
Stablecoins will inevitably become the 'eye of the regulatory storm'.
Look at the essence through the phenomenon
The influence of insiders is small, but that of newcomers is large
After the Ministry of Public Security takes the lead, 'practitioners' themselves become the primary target.
The difficulty for newcomers to enter is only superficial; the deeper logic is that the state is blocking the outflow of funds through channels like USDT, maintaining the order of foreign exchange management.
The impact is not limited to newcomers but directly targets practitioners.
Always calling for withdrawal at the highest point
The purpose of regulation is not to stop you from making money, but to intervene at the 'risk peak' to prevent social speculation waves and systemic financial risks.
What we see as the 'peak' is the 'risk critical point' in regulatory logic.
The implementation lies in capturing U merchants
Regulation is never targeted at an individual, but the involvement of the Ministry of Public Security means that there will be 'chain governance'—from publicity and traffic diversion, OTC, to project parties, the entire industrial chain will be brought into perspective.
This is systematic governance, not symbolic action.
Understanding and choices for survival in the new era
For us retail investors!!!
Reassess the risk-reward ratio: in the face of legal risks, is the potential reward still worth it?
Be extremely vigilant about the source of funds: reduce holdings of stablecoins and beware of any on-chain funds from unknown sources.
Recognize cross-border risks: the focus of this action is to combat illegal cross-border capital flows.
For practitioners and KOLs
This time, the real danger is not the retail investors, but all practitioners in every field:
Become a node, custody, and lead orders
Create stablecoin channels, OTC
Conduct KOL promotion and traffic diversion, project party publicity
These actions may all be included in the key inspection scope.
This means that practitioners will face dual pressure simultaneously.
Regarding stablecoins
USDT, as a pegged asset to the US dollar, is not significantly affected, but what can be focused on is the recent low rating given to Tether by S&P, which indicates that there is a certain risk in USDT’s collateral itself.
Regarding the difficulty of entering the circle
For the long-standing Bitcoin and mainstream, the impact is limited.
However, for emerging ecosystems like meme, the impact is not small.
This circle essentially requires attracting a large amount of new funds to push prices upward and drive a bull market.
New players find it harder to enter, further compressing liquidity.
The cycle endures, but the way of playing has changed.
In the past decade, we have witnessed the rise and fall of the Bitcoin cycle and have brushed past the regulatory cycle multiple times.
However, the document from 2025 marks a fundamental shift: past regulation was 'reminder', while current regulation is 'governance'; past was 'policy', and the future will be 'law'.
The game of encryption will become 'Next Level' in difficulty starting today.
Final cognitive recommendations
1. If it has been hard for you to make money in the past few years, or even if you have lost money, then 'the only way to win is to leave early'. Acknowledging that the difficulty of the game exceeds your ability is another form of wisdom.
2. If you have had smooth sailing in the past few years, with the market acting like an ATM, then it is time to seriously consider turning to the compliant market, including but not limited to adjusting strategies or 'physically going'.
3. True faith comes from the clarity of understanding. One must understand that when rules change, stubbornness is not persistence, but foolishness. In 2014, Russia also imposed a complete ban, which was later adjusted. Before 'having laws to rely on' is truly implemented, the market may experience a period of despair, but surviving and maintaining open and keen understanding is more important than any short-term fluctuations.
