Everyone is shouting, "The Federal Reserve's QT is over, and the bull market in December is coming."

So what happened? BTC fell below 87,000, evaporating 140 billion dollars in 24 hours.

The market tells you in the most direct way: narrative ≠ reality.

For the past decade, December has been the best-performing month for BTC, with an average return of 40%.

But on the first day of December this year, the market gave you a lesson. History will repeat itself, but it will not be a simple copy.

Everyone is betting on the logic of "liquidity easing → capital influx → coin price soaring,"

but they overlook a key issue: the speed of liquidity release is far behind the speed of panic selling.

Let's look at the data:

• 15 tokens unlocked 68 million dollars today, directly crashing the market

• Institutions are still calling for 200,000 dollars, but large on-chain addresses continue to reduce their holdings

• Although ETFs are buying, the buying speed has obviously slowed down

When everyone is waiting for favorable policies, the real risk is — the benefits you think exist have long been priced in by the market.

To those who still believe in "December must rise," I suggest you look back at the last three Decembers:

• December 2024: It did rise, but that was the super narrative of Trump's election

• December 2023: Sideways for a month, nothing happened

• December 2022: The aftermath of the FTX explosion, continued to fall

Historical average return of 40%? That's calculated including both bull and bear markets.

In this high-leverage, high-selling pressure, and high-uncertainty environment, the reference value of historical experience is about zero.

My judgment:

Short-term continued downward fluctuation, the real opportunity lies after the market completes deleveraging and releases panic emotions.

It's not that it won't rise, but those who are eager to bottom-fish are likely to become the next wave of liquidity in the downturn.

In the comments, let me know, do you think December can rise back to 100,000?