Today, the chairman of the SEC stated: the entire financial system will shift to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in a few years, this is the future of the world.

At the same time, the People's Bank of China announced November data: gold reserves increased to 2305.39 tons, marking the 13th consecutive month of increasing gold holdings.

One embraces digital currencies, the other increases physical gold holdings. Do you want to ask why China chooses or must choose gold?

At a crossroads, the most important thing is not to take sides, but to understand. There is no absolute right or wrong, only different choices and corresponding costs.

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01 | History always rhymes with the same endings

In 1944, the Bretton Woods system was established, anchoring gold to the dollar and the dollar to the world. That was the era of tangible sovereignty.

The logic at that time was simple: 35 dollars could be exchanged for 1 ounce of gold, and the credit of the dollar was built on gold reserves.

In 1971, Nixon's shock decoupled the dollar from gold, and fiat currency replaced the gold standard. That was the beginning of dollar hegemony.

From then on, the dollar no longer needed gold backing; its credit came from America's military, technological, and financial hegemony. Global trade is settled in dollars, and central banks hold US debt as reserves.

Currently, history is diverging again.

The US embraces cryptocurrencies, and the SEC chairman's statements are not personal views but represent a strategic shift in the US financial regulatory system.

From the approval of Bitcoin ETFs to the advancement of stablecoin regulatory frameworks, to traditional financial institutions' large-scale layout of crypto assets, this is a top-down institutional embrace.

China has continuously increased its gold holdings, accumulating over 41 tons in 13 months. Compared to simple asset allocation, I personally believe it is a strategic declaration of sovereignty.

Building a firewall against dollarization with physical assets.

From anchoring gold, to decoupling from gold, to returning to gold. Only this time, the world has split into two parallel universes.

One is the US-dominated digital financial universe, where stablecoins, DeFi, and on-chain assets become new ways to export the dollar.

The other is the tangible sovereignty universe represented by China and Russia, where hard assets like gold, oil, and food become anchors for de-dollarization.

And cryptocurrencies stand at the intersection of these two universes.

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02 | Why did the US choose cryptocurrencies? Stablecoins are the 2.0 version of dollar hegemony

Many people think the US embraces cryptocurrencies because of "innovation" or "technological advancement." Wrong.

The real reason is: stablecoins are the most perfect digital extension of dollar hegemony.

Currently, the global stablecoin market is approximately $312.8 billion, of which:
The market value of USDT is approximately $185.7 billion
The market value of USDC is approximately $78.1 billion
Other stablecoins amount to approximately $49 billion

What does this mean?
Every issuance of USDT corresponds to dollar reserves. Tether's holdings of US debt, cash, and commercial paper are essentially dollar assets.

Every on-chain USDT transfer strengthens the global liquidity of the dollar. From remittance workers in the Philippines to small vendors in Nigeria, from risk-averse savers in Argentina to grey market traders in Russia.

Hundreds of millions of people around the world use dollars through stablecoins without going through the traditional banking system.

This is more efficient than the traditional SWIFT system, has a broader coverage than the Federal Reserve's currency swap agreements, and is harder to sell off than US debt.

"The entire financial system will shift to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies within a few years," the key point of this statement is not "Bitcoin," but "the financial system."

Cryptocurrencies are no longer the enemy of regulation, but part of the financial system.
Stablecoins are no longer in the grey area but are the digital carriers of the dollar.
On-chain assets are no longer speculative tools but legitimate investment targets.

When cryptocurrencies are incorporated into the US-dominated financial system, they are no longer tools to "hedge against the dollar" but new carriers of dollar hegemony.

But within the US, there is not a united front.

The SEC's stance is not entirely consistent with that of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. The Federal Reserve is more concerned with minting rights and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Decentralized currency fundamentally challenges these.

This is a "reconciliation". The US is trying to tame cryptocurrencies, turning them from challengers of the regime into tools within the system. But this process itself is fraught with risks:

Overexpansion of stablecoins may bypass the Federal Reserve and weaken the effectiveness of monetary policy
Over-monetization of Bitcoin may lead to the marginalization of the dollar itself
A variant of the Triffin dilemma: the dollar needs global liquidity, but excessive liquidity could threaten its stability

This is a tightrope walk.

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03 | Why did China choose gold? "Decentralization" is a beautiful lie

Unlike the aggressive strategy of the US, China's increase in gold holdings is a defensive declaration of sovereignty.

In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, Western countries quickly froze about $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves held by its central bank.

This $300 billion includes:
Dollar assets (US debt, bank deposits)
Euro assets (European debt, bank deposits)
Digital financial assets

But one thing cannot be frozen: the gold stored in Moscow's vaults.

The 2,300 tons of gold held by the Russian central bank became the only sovereign asset that could not be touched amidst the storm of sanctions.

This taught all countries a lesson: in an era of increasing geopolitical risk, physical sovereign assets are the last line of defense.

"Pseudo-decentralization dependent on fiat currency systems" is a lie.

There is a beautiful myth in the crypto world: "Cryptocurrencies are decentralized, and no one can control them."

But 90% of the reality in the crypto world is:
Exchanges are under US jurisdiction: Coinbase, Kraken, and http://Binance.US must comply with US laws;

Stablecoin issuers are regulated by the US: Circle (the issuer of USDC) is headquartered in Boston, and although Tether is offshore, all its banking relationships are within the US system;

Mining pools and nodes are concentrated in the West: over 60% of BTC's hash power is controlled by mining pools in North America and Europe;

Cloud service providers are under US jurisdiction: many DeFi protocols have their front ends hosted by US companies like AWS and Cloudflare;

In March 2022, the Canadian government froze the bank accounts of individuals participating in the "truck driver protest," along with freezing some cryptocurrency wallets.

As long as your assets need to be liquidated through centralized exchanges, stablecoins, or custodial services, they can be frozen.

But this does not mean that true decentralized technology is entirely useless.

Between the two financial universes, there still exists a "grey area":
Native BTC on-chain transactions; front-end de-custodialization of decentralized exchanges; censorship-resistant node networks;

These technologies, although niche, are effective means of counter-sanction. The true spirit of crypto punk has not died; it has only been overshadowed by 90% of the commercialization wave.

At this point, looking at gold again: the only sovereign asset that does not rely on credit systems

The value of gold does not depend on:
The credit backing of any country
The commitments of any financial institution
The operation of any technological system
The permissions of any jurisdiction

Gold is just gold; it is in the vaults of Moscow, in the vaults of Beijing, and in the vaults of New York.

But gold also has a fatal flaw: liquidity.
You cannot instantly complete a cross-border oil settlement with gold bars; the transport and delivery of physical gold are extremely slow and expensive. Gold is a "ballast," but not a "speedboat."

This is why China's strategy is not singular. China's digital puzzle: CBDC + mBridge

China has increased its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, but that is only one side. The other side is: the digital yuan (e-CNY) and the multilateral central bank digital currency bridge (mBridge).

China's true strategy is: gold is the shield, and the digital yuan is the spear.
Gold serves as a base asset to ensure reserve assets are not frozen. CBDC acts as a payment channel to bypass SWIFT and the US dollar stablecoin system.

China does not reject digitization; it rejects "dollarized digitization." It attempts to establish a digital payment network based on fiat currency sovereignty to counter the privately dominated stablecoin system of USDT/USDC.

This is a more complete framework:
Short-term tactics: mBridge achieves cross-border settlement
Medium-term defense: gold ensures reserve security
Long-term goal: to establish a RMB settlement network parallel to the dollar system
China has not chosen cryptocurrencies, but it has not retreated to a fully physical era either. It is carving out a third path in the middle ground.

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04 | Based on this, personal micro suggestions

Suggestion 1: Re-understand the positioning of BTC

BTC is no longer "digital gold" but "digital risk assets." Its logic has shifted from hedging fiat to being an institutional allocation target.

Do not buy BTC with the logic of "hedging inflation"; that era has passed. Treat BTC like a tech stock, focus on US stock trends and Federal Reserve policies, institutional inflows are the main driving force, and pay attention to ETF inflow data.

Suggestion 2: Understand the duality of gold

Gold is the last line of defense but not a daily weapon.

Advantages of gold: does not rely on any country's credit; cannot be frozen or confiscated (if stored in one’s own country); retains value over the long term.

Flaws of gold: extremely low liquidity, cannot be quickly liquidated; very low settlement efficiency, slow and expensive cross-border delivery; does not generate income.

Alternative solutions:
Allocate some gold ETFs or physical gold; keep some fiat currency cash or short-term government bonds; do not go all in on any single asset.

Suggestion 3: Understand the logic of differentiation, hedge rather than take sides

This is not about "choosing the US or choosing China" but about understanding the different logic of the two assets.

Allocate BTC, ETH, and quality DeFi assets (benefiting from institutional inflows) within the US-dominated digital financial system

Allocate gold, commodity ETFs (benefiting from geopolitical risk premium) during the de-dollarization process

Dynamically adjust ratios based on geopolitical conditions. This is not a contradiction, but a hedge.

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At this fork in the road, the most important thing is not to take sides, but to understand.

Understand why the US embraces cryptocurrencies, understand why China increases its gold holdings, and understand the strategic logic behind these two choices.

Then, based on your own risk tolerance and geopolitical stance, make your own allocation choices.

The fork in history has already appeared. At this fork in the road, there are no absolute rights or wrongs, only different choices and corresponding costs.