Wow, I woke up and BTC rose from 89,000 to around 94,500.

At this time, should we short the contract or build a position in spot or go long?

My friend, a trader with 6 years of experience in reverse trading, sent me a message again:

- 'The most dangerous thing is not falling, but rebounding.'

- 'During a drop, fear prevents you from buying, and after a rebound, greed makes you gamble recklessly.'

What the hell, what should we do? Today I explained his 3-3-4 batching method in detail.

On August 5, 2024, BTC plummeted to around 49,000, with a fear index of 18. Almost no one dared to buy.

But those who built positions in batches from 49,000 to 54,000 had an average cost of about 52,000.

Reached the December 17 high of 106,142. An increase of over 104%, assets doubled.

But those who panic-sell miss the entire rebound.

He said: 'A rebound is not an opportunity; it's a test.' Today I explained his 3-3-4 staggered method thoroughly.

First, why is a rebound more dangerous than a crash?

Let me first state an unconventional fact.

On August 5, 2024, BTC plummeted to 49,000, with a fear index of 18 (extreme fear). Almost no one dared to buy.

That day many panicked and sold at the bottom.

But those who dared to build positions in batches between 49,000 and 54,000 have an average cost of about 52,000.

Four months later, on December 17, BTC rose to 106,142. An increase of over 104%, assets doubled.

When the market drops, fear protects you from chasing the decline. In a rebound, greed makes you recklessly go all in. This is harsh, but true.

Three fatal traps of the rebound

Trap 1: Misjudging bottom confirmation

A rebound ≠ bottom confirmation.

Most rebounds can continue, but many are false signals to attract more buyers.

Do you think a 6% rise means a return of the bull market? It may just be a rebound in a downward trend.

Trap 2: FOMO and going all in

Feeling that 'I missed out' after a 6% rebound, blindly going all in.

Result: When it retraces by 3%, you panic because you have no bullets to add positions, and your costs are locked in at high levels.

Trap 3: Chasing highs and getting stuck

Chasing in the mid-high positions during a rebound leads to high costs, high risks, and no safety margins.

Once it retraces, it immediately turns from floating profit to floating loss, causing a collapse in mindset and cutting losses.

Those who truly survive use a 'staggered system' to cope with uncertainty.

Two, the 3-3-4 staggered position building method

He used the 3-3-4 staggered method to cope with the 30% risk of 'false rebounds.'

First batch: 30% to build positions immediately

Current price 94,500, build a position of 30%.

Cost: 94,500.

Why not wait?

Because the perfect timing will never come.

Use 30% to test the waters, and keep 70% for future changes.

Second batch: 30% waiting for confirmation or retracement

Scenario A: Rises to 98,000 (+3.7%) → Trend confirmation

Add 30% to your position.

Average cost:

(94,500 × 30% + 98,000 × 30%) ÷ 60% = 96,250.

Why chase highs?

Breaking through resistance levels increases the probability of trend continuation.

Although the cost is slightly higher, you can hold on after confirming the trend.

Scenario B: Retracement to 91,000 (-3.7%) → Add positions on retracement

Add 30% to your position.

Average cost:

(94,500 × 30% + 91,000 × 30%) ÷ 60% = 92,750.

Why not be afraid?

Retracements are opportunities, not dangers.

Lower costs in batches for a higher safety margin.

Third batch: 40% for breakout or deep retracement

Scenario A: Break through 100,000 → Confirmation of the breakout

Complete the last 40% of your position.

Average cost: about 96,800.

Why go all in?

Breaking through whole numbers signals clear continuation of the bull market.

Participate fully, but keep your costs manageable.

Scenario B: Deep retracement to 88,000 → Bottom-fishing and adding positions

Complete the last 40% of your position.

Average cost: about 90,800.

Why dare to buy?

Deep retracement close to the starting point offers the best risk-reward ratio.

At this time, being fully invested with very low costs has huge future potential.

Stop-loss line: 84,500

Break below the rebound starting point (89,000) by 5%.

If the stop-loss is triggered, total losses are controlled at 7–10%.

But preserve 90% of your principal; next time you get another chance.

The key is not 'not losing money', but 'losing small amounts and making big profits.'

Three, two-way response strategies

This is the key part.

He doesn't bet on price movements. He has prepared two strategies.

Scenario A: If it continues to rise to 98,000 (+3.7%)

First batch (30%): Floating profit of 3.7%.

Mindset: Don't FOMO, follow the plan to add the second batch at 98,000.

Logic: Trend confirmed, continue to participate.

Scenario B: If it retraces to 91,000 (-3.7%)

First batch (30%): Floating loss of 3.7%.

Mindset: Don't panic, because there's still the second batch and the third batch.

Logic: Retracement is an opportunity to add positions, not a signal to cut losses.

Worst-case scenario: drop below 84,500 for stop-loss

Total position loss of 7–10%.

But you preserved 90% of your principal; you can fight again next time.

The key: Regardless of price movements, you have a strategy to cope.

Will not panic due to callbacks, will not FOMO due to missing opportunities.

Four, three common questions

Q1: What if this is a false rebound and it continues to drop back to 88,000?

A: That's even better.

The second batch and the third batch continue to buy, with an even lower average cost.

The key is that you have staggered positions, so you won't be stuck at the highest point all at once.

And you have a stop-loss (84,500); if it drops below that, you won't stubbornly hold until it goes to zero.

The meaning of the system is to ensure you have a response plan in any situation.

Q2: Why not wait for a breakout at 100,000 to buy?

A: Do you think the difference is 5,500 dollars?

No, the difference is in mindset.

Buy at 94,500:

When it rises to 100,000, you're holding a floating profit; you dare to add positions during the retracement, keeping a steady mindset.

Buy at 100,000:

If you chase the breakout and it drops back to 98,000, you will be stuck with a floating loss and panic, leading you to cut losses.

Our strategy is 'staggered testing', not 'waiting for certainty.'

Because when certainty appears, profits have already been cut in half,

And you are likely to miss the entry.

Q3: I'm already stuck at 97,000, what should I do now?

A: Forget your cost line.

The market doesn't care what your cost is.

Currently at 94,500, with a fear index of 22, this is an objective opportunity.

What can be done now:

Continue to use the 3-3-4 method to add positions and lower costs;

Set a stop-loss (84,500);

Use signals to judge, not cost lines.

Your cost of 97,000 does not mean the market should rise back to 97,000.

But if the market has opportunities, you can lower your cost by adding positions to 92,000–93,000, and you'll break even faster.

Five, a few last words

A rebound is not an opportunity; it's a test.

Testing whether you will FOMO because 'it has risen 6%.'

Testing if you will blindly bottom-fish because of a 'fear index of 22.'

Testing if you can use a system instead of emotions.

In August 2024, BTC rebounded from 49,000:

- Those who panic-sell at the bottom miss the entire upward cycle.

- Those who watch from the sidelines miss out when the market rises 104% afterward.

- Those who build positions in batches have an average cost of 52,000 and steadily double their investment.

The difference is not luck; it's the system.

My three suggestions:

✔ Use the 3-3-4 staggered method to build positions; don't rely on feelings;

✔ Don't go all in, but don't go empty either; leave some bullets;

✔ Set a stop-loss (84,500); even if wrong, you can still survive.

Historically, every time the fear index falls below 25, only a few dare to act.

And they took most of the profits from the bull market.

Are you currently sidelined or have you started to build positions in batches?👇