2025.12.1 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Hello brothers, let's talk about whether there is still hope for the market?

Today there was a big drop, 4 major reasons:

(1) The Bank of Japan made hawkish statements, hinting at a rate hike

(2) Trump posted that Powell will resign, causing panic in the financial markets, everyone is worried that Trump will act recklessly

(3) Recently, the People's Bank of China further cracked down on cryptocurrency trading

(4) Yearn yETH pool was attacked, a large amount was stolen

Have you noticed that when the market is bad, there are only bad news, not a single good news? When the market is good, there is only good news, not a single bad news. If you say the media is not controlled by big players, I do not believe it.

The Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator has a dollar-cost averaging line at 1.2, a bottom line at 0.45, and the current value is 0.57, reflecting the current market situation. You can dollar-cost average into spot BTC daily, but be cautious of a pullback to 80,000 (as mentioned in last week's analysis).

The interest rates are still high, combined with the changing international situation, market liquidity has not yet recovered, currently in the consolidation phase of a new cycle, which is expected to last 1-2 months, until all the WeChat groups go silent, everyone has lost hope and is cutting losses. Of course, if we are waiting for the major bottom on the weekly chart, it is expected to be at the end of next year, anticipated to be in the range of 45,000-55,000 USD.

Now we need to work hard to make money and maintain a calm mind,

As big players gather the bottom chips, combined with economic data showing a decrease in inflation, the market will then show improvements.

Key events to watch this week:

Tuesday 9:00 Powell speaks;

Tuesday 23:00 Fed Governor Bowman speaks;

Wednesday 21:15 US November ADP employment numbers;

Thursday 21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (10,000);

Friday 23:00 US PCE price index year-on-year;

Friday 23:00 US December one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value;

Friday 23:00 US December University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.

The analysis is only a friendly reference, adults must take responsibility for their own decisions, investment carries risks, please invest idle money and think independently!