December's Crypto Market Life and Death: QT Ends + Fed Game, Every Step Determines Rise and Fall!
🔴 December 1: US QT Ends! Risk Assets Welcome Epic Good News
This is the core turning point of the current economic cycle, where the market switches directly from 'volume contraction internal competition' to 'stock competition + incremental expectations'. This is a significant boost for risk assets, and the implicit easing cycle has started ahead of schedule.
🟡 Fed's Quiet Period Approaches!
During the quiet period, Fed officials will completely stop public speaking, leaving only three key speeches + core data this week as the basis for the December rate cut expectations. After the quiet period ends, the market's pricing for rate cuts will essentially be 'frozen', and the subsequent volatility will significantly narrow.
🟢 December 2 09:00: Powell's Speech Determines Life and Death
Even entering the quiet period, Powell's statements remain the market's 'stabilizing force'. With QT ending, the market is extremely eager for him to clarify the subsequent policy tone—will it continue the preventive rate cut approach, or will it watch inflation rebound? If he deliberately releases hawkish comments to suppress rate cut expectations in response to the positive effects of halting QT, risk assets like Bitcoin may face a sharp decline in the short term.
🔵 December 2 23:00: The Most Hawkish Bowman Testifies! Her Softening = Rate Cut Expectations Soar
Bowman's position softens, her value far exceeds that of five ordinary dovish officials. If even this hawkish core figure acknowledges the easing of employment and inflation pressures, it means the Fed's hawkish camp has been pierced by real data, and rate cut expectations will be completely ignited.
🟣 December 3: Small Non-Farm Data Shock! Weaker than Expected = Crypto Frenzy.
This month's major non-farm data is missing, the importance of small non-farm data has soared, becoming the core basis for judging the US employment situation. Weaker than expected data = rising rate cut expectations; stronger than expected is likely to be interpreted as 'data distortion', which will not change the easing trend.
🟤 December 5: Lagging PCE Shakes the Scene! Old Data Can Also Disrupt the Rate Cut Situation
Although lagging by two months, the trending significance of this data cannot be overlooked. If the data is weaker than expected, it will further consolidate confidence in rate cuts; if it shows signs of inflation rising in September, even if it is old data, it will be used by hawks to hype 'fiscal stimulus may restart inflation', interfering with the market's judgment on the December rate cut.
