12.1
A new week, a new month, starting with a large bearish candlestick at the hourly level, erasing a week's gains. The pullback at the weekly level is quite decisive, with Bitcoin down 3.5% and Ethereum down 5.5%. It is more appropriate to short on the rise today, and one can also test long positions at key levels. If there is support during the weekly pullback, one can enter. The weekly pullback is also a preliminary bottom for the monthly line; as long as the previous low is not broken, this might become the last washout. If the previous low is broken, it will have to re-test the bottom. The potential for long positions depends on the Fed's rate cut space; current liquidity is facing exhaustion, often small funds can create significant waves, with spikes everywhere, a wave after a consolidation, then another consolidation. The sustainability is very poor.
Bitcoin: Short on the rise during the day, with significant support levels for long (such as above the 4-hour level). The key focus today is whether the previous low from last month can be broken, which is of utmost importance. The bearish strength in the morning is particularly strong, especially with a drop of 3000 points in the 1-hour timeframe, which exceeded expectations. If a long wick can probe the bottom at the 15-minute level or above, one can try long.
Support: 85000, Resistance: 91500
Ethereum: Mainly shorting from the high, the sustained low-volume rise has turned Ethereum into a trap, easily misleading one to believe in strong bullishness. In the morning, it dropped 150 points in one hour, which is significant. The key point is whether Bitcoin can make a new low; there is no need to focus on Ethereum's new low. If Bitcoin makes a new low, Ethereum will follow with a drop. Just the timing might be delayed, making it even more deceptive. Buying the dip early can easily result in losses.
Support: 2793, Resistance: 2965, 2990
