Analysis of the causes of the black trading day
On September 29, 2025, the FF token plummeted by 75%, rooted in three overlapping contradictions: first, the imbalance in airdrop distribution, with 8.3% of the community quota concentrated in the hands of a few users, triggering concentrated sell-offs; second, early investors faced no lock-up constraints, with 4.5% of the share liquidated on the first day of listing; third, insufficient liquidity preparation, with an initial trading pair depth of only $5 million corresponding to a circulation of 2.34 billion tokens. Even with Binance and Bybit urgently launching Launchpool, they could not prevent the price from falling from $0.67 to $0.19.
Support forces during the stabilization phase
From October, the price enters a stabilization period, with core support from three aspects: first, the audit report from Harris & Trotter LLP eliminates doubts about reserves, with USDf circulation rebounding to $1.6 billion; second, capital injections from M2 Capital and others totaling $10 million to supplement liquidity; third, news of six exchanges passing listing reviews boosts market expectations. In December, the price stabilized at 0.176 AUD, rising 107% from the low point, with 24-hour volatility narrowing to 7.39%, significantly reducing speculation.
Future price drivers
In the short term, the official launch of the exchange and the continuous fermentation of the Yap2Fly event will provide liquidity support; in the medium term, it relies on the revenue increment brought by the launch of the RWA engine in 2026, and the landing of institutional-level products is expected to attract long-term funds; in the long term, it depends on the scale of the ecosystem—if the circulation of USDf exceeds 5 billion USD, there is potential for a 3-5 times increase in the valuation of the FF token. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against regulatory policy changes and the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market. The current exchange rate of 0.00000126 BTC still indicates its high-risk nature.
#falconfinanc @Falcon Finance $FF
