Bitcoin recently formed a symmetrical triangle, but the bulls made a false breakout above it, which is a huge problem because this symmetrical triangle pretty much transformed into a bearish flag, and that's a very bearish pattern! The price has been consolidating for many weeks within this pattern, and soon we are going to see a significant move, most likely to the downside!
$BTC This can be your last warning - otherwise, you can get liquidated in the upcoming days. You can still open a short position on futures if you want to make money on this move. What is the target of this bearish flag? To answer this question, we have to use a Fibonacci extension tool and look for the 1:1 FIB extension (92,200 USD). But what we cannot miss is this descending parallel channel projection and its support trendlines. There are pretty much 2 trendlines that act as a dynamic support (support changes with time). Support levels of these trendlines are currently around 95k and 90k. So this gives us an idea that Bitcoin should react to this zone (should be a great buying opportunity). There is also a minor support of 101,444 (0.618 FIB extension), this is indeed a weak support in this particular case, and I expect only a small bounce from this level.
What will happen after this upcoming flash crash? I think we may see a rise back to 107k to retest the previous symmetrical triangle / bear flag. Altcoins are bleeding again!
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin short term trend is STILL bearish. The 95K resistance defines the structure which implies a lower low is likely to follow in the near future. There is also a failed high off the 93,500 area which suggests further weakness as well (see arrow). IF the 88K area breaks again (trend line break), a test of the 78K low area becomes a higher probability. IF the 95K resistance is broken instead, it cancels out this scenario. It is not about which way I think the market is going to move, it is about what the MARKET chooses. Our job is to look for confirmations, manage risk and adjust to NEW information. $BTC This week we have the FOMC meeting and press conference. This event carries a LOT of weight especially because the Fed is expected to provide guidance on how they plan to shape monetary policy in the near future. The market has priced in another 25 basis point cut, which means what will move the market dramatically is what is said as the press conference. This event has the potential to change the Bitcoin price structure and short term expectation as well. Going into this with opinions is a sub optimal way to mange risk around such an event.
While the major index markets like S&P and Nasdaq are also testing potential resistance levels, IF the Fed unveils and dovish outlook prices will likely grind higher. Also it is important to keep in mind in the coming year (May) Chairman Powell will be out and a new appointee will take over. WHOEVER this person is (still not officially known), WHATEVER they say in interviews, etc., before he is officially the chairman will carry MORE weight than Powell. Important to KEEP in mind for the coming year.
When markets are coming up to an event such as this FOMC, it is better to keep expectations low and take whatever you can get. For example, if you play the bullish trend line on a 4 hour chart for a swing trade, do not look for more than 1:1 trades even for brief swing trades. It is the same if the resistance levels are tested: wait f or confirmations, whether it is a day or swing trade, and keep profit objectives tighter than usual. Markets are likely to become more and more indecisive going into the day of the meeting.
If 78K to 80K support is tested again, watch for a lower low. 73K is a major support. These levels are attractive for investing in my opinion. Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Ethereum Hits Demand Zone – Smart Money Reaction Begins!
1. Major Breakdown Completed
ETH formed a sharp sell-off leg, moving along the long diagonal trendline you drew. This indicates strong downside momentum that has now reached exhaustion near the bottom zone. $ETH 2. Price Tapped a Key Demand Zone
The lower green/grey area marks a high-volume demand block. ETH reacted strongly from this zone, showing:
A wick rejection
Shift in market structure
Buyers absorbing the remaining liquidity
This confirms the zone is valid.
3. Liquidity Grab at the Lows
That spike below the structure (where you marked the “M-shaped” dip) looks like a classic stop-hunt / liquidity sweep. After grabbing liquidity, ETH bounced aggressively.
This is usually a sign of smart-money accumulation.
4. Early Trend Reversal Signals
The small bullish rally forming now suggests:
Momentum is shifting
Bears are losing control
ETH might build a new short-term uptrend from this area
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
USDT Dominance at Decision Zone Rejection or Breakout?
USDT Dominance remains the leading macro compass for true market direction, and the weekly structure is now sitting at a very sensitive inflection point. The chart has been oscillating inside a large descending channel since 2021, repeatedly respecting dynamic trendlines and reacting cleanly to both the secondary supply and demand zones.
$BTC $ETH Price is currently positioned near the upper boundary and trading inside the Strategic Supply Zone, with clear rejection pressure. The bearish path remains valid as long as price holds below the supply ceiling, where any expansion lower would target the mid-channel region around 4.55% first, followed by the deeper liquidity pocket toward 2.56% at the primary demand zone. A breakdown into that area historically aligns with strong upside phases in BTC and the broader altcoin market, as shown in previous cycles.
However, a weekly breakout and acceptance above the supply zone would change the narrative entirely. Continuation strength could propel dominance into the 9.48%–10.36% range, which would typically translate into aggressive liquidity rotation back into stablecoins and increased selling pressure across crypto majors and alts.
This is a pivotal zone. We should monitor the weekly close closely: • Rejection here = bullish for BTC & altcoins • Acceptance above = risk-off and likely capital shift into stablecoins
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
BTCUSDT: Buyers Defend 91K Zone – Targeting 96K Expansion!
The current BTCUSDT price action is developing within a strongly structured bullish environment after a prolonged decline driven by the Descending Channel. Earlier, the market broke down from the upper supply region and continued to move lower while respecting the descending channel boundaries. After reaching a pivot low near the demand zone around 91,000, buyers stepped in, initiating a reversal and shifting momentum to the upside. Following this, Bitcoin formed a clean Ascending Channel that confirmed growing bullish pressure. $BTC
Price then entered a Range phase, indicating temporary equilibrium before the next impulsive move. After completing this consolidation, BTCUSDT created a clear Head and Shoulders reversal structure near demand, signaling a strong bullish reversal. Buyers took control and pushed price sharply upward, breaking through the range and reclaiming higher structure levels.
Currently, BTCUSDT is trading inside a new Ascending Channel, steadily climbing toward the 96,000 supply level, where sellers previously reacted. As long as price remains above the 91,000 demand zone and continues to respect the ascending channel structure, the bullish scenario remains valid. The next upside target is the 96,000 resistance area, aligned with the upper channel boundary.
My scenario is a continuation toward 96,000 as long as buyers maintain control of the channel. However, a strong rejection from this supply zone may trigger a corrective pullback back toward demand before buyers attempt another move upward. Manage your risk!
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin finds itself at an important turning point once again after a sharp decline followed by a strong recovery. In this update, we will cover the reaction to the previous 4H bearish FVG, the newly formed 4H FVG inversion acting as support, the next resistance level around 95,000 dollars, and the recent liquidity sweep.
$BTC 4H Bearish FVG Inversion Two days ago, BTC made a strong downward move that reversed a large part of the earlier rally and collected deep liquidity beneath local lows. During this drop, a clear 4H bearish FVG was formed, acting as a supply zone. Yesterday, however, BTC reclaimed this entire FVG with conviction: the price broke through it and closed multiple candles above the zone. This shift flips the area from supply into demand, meaning the former bearish FVG has now transformed into a 4H FVG inversion. The green box on the chart now represents the primary support zone, ideally holding during any pullback.
4H Bearish FVG Around $95,000 Above the current price lies the next 4H bearish FVG around roughly 95,000 dollars, aligning with a previous consolidation and distribution phase. This region acts as strong resistance and is the next logical magnet for the ongoing recovery move. As long as the FVG inversion beneath price holds, it is reasonable to expect BTC to gradually move toward the 95k area. A clear reaction is likely once this zone is reached—ranging from a brief rejection and sideways consolidation to a potentially larger reversal if sellers become aggressive again.
Liquidity Sweep Recently, BTC briefly pushed above a local high and pulled back immediately afterward, creating a clear liquidity sweep on the chart. This move wiped out the stops of late shorts as well as breakout longs but did not yet lead to immediate continuation to the upside. After such a sweep, the question becomes whether the market can gather enough buyers to fuel the next impulse toward the higher FVG, or whether price will first drop back toward the inversion support to gather liquidity there. The reaction at current levels will therefore provide important insight into short-term direction.
Conclusion Because of today’s liquidity sweep, a direct correction from the current price is very possible, especially if short-term traders take profit after the strong bounce. However, the base scenario remains that BTC could still make one more push upward toward the 4H bearish FVG around 95,000 dollars, where a more significant reaction is expected. Such a move would fit perfectly within a structure where resistance is tested first, followed by a pullback to retest the new inversion support—confirming whether the recent reversal has real strength behind it.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
The chart shows Bitcoin forming a clear double-bottom pattern, supported by bullish RSI divergence on the lower panel. This combination often signals exhaustion of downward momentum and a potential trend reversal. The price has rallied strongly from the second bottom and is now pressing directly into the neckline zone, which aligns with a broader descending trendline drawn from previous swing highs.
$BTC This overlap creates a high-confluence resistance area. The current reaction here is critical: if price decisively breaks above the neckline and closes above the descending trendline, it would confirm the reversal structure and open the path toward the next major liquidity pocket around the 100k–104k region, marked on your chart as the target. This region matches previous consolidation and supply, making it a realistic upside magnet if breakout momentum is strong.
However, without a confirmed breakout, the neckline remains a potential rejection level, and price could retest the mid-range or even revisit trendline support. Bulls need continuation volume above resistance to flip the zone into support.
Overall, market structure has shifted from aggressive selling to a constructive bottoming phase. The key now is whether bulls can convert this pattern into a sustained trend reversal
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin - Fake Drop! Soon Return to 96k (December PUMP!)
Bitcoin has dropped like crazy in the past day because we are in a strong bear market, but I think we should see a December rally! I have been warning you against these big crashes pretty much since Summer 2025. I knew it was going to happen - the question was not if but when.
$BTC The price created a huge FVG, and this gap is very unfilled. Pretty much it looks like a huge manipulation from big players (they sent the price down significantly to liquidate high-leverage traders on futures). You know that the Bitcoin market is completely manipulated by the Fed, banks, and huge institutions. They even have a roadmap, and they know what the price of Bitcoin will be in 2030 and 2040. I know everyone hates the Fed and banks, but this is how it is. We trade it, so you have to be able to predict their movements and trade with their plan.
I think Bitcoin will be very bearish in 2026, and we will see prices below 60k! It looked like sci-fi a few weeks ago, but this idea of 60k Bitcoin seems to be real. Moonboys are no longer spitting on these ideas, and some people are calling for 30k or 40k Bitcoin. Let me know in the comment section your prediction. I am curious! You have to understand that there is a lot of manipulation going on in this world. We live in a physical world that has been created recently. The original astral world is where the magic happens. And yes, the physical world is a scam and fraud. The sooner you understand that after you're dead, you wake up in the original astral world, the better for you.
Currently, I am pretty bullish, I think we will see a bullish rally sooner rather than later!
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin Major Resistance Rejection. Potential Sell Coming!
BTCUSDT perfectly played out my previous trading idea. Price has broken sharply below the pullback channel after failing to sustain momentum into the 93,000 resistance zone — a heavy confluence of the mid-channel trendline and the broader descending structure. This rejection confirms another lower high, reinforcing the dominant bearish sequence visible since early November. The breakdown signals a shift back into trend continuation mode, with sellers retaking control after a corrective rally.
$BTC As long as BTC trades below 90,000–92,000, the downside path points toward the 81,000 support, where the previous bottom formed and where a potential double-bottom setup may emerge. Momentum remains pressured, and liquidity below the recent swing low increases the probability of a sweep toward 81,000, and possibly deeper into the buying zone.
Primary scenario: continuation lower → targets 81,100. Risk scenario: a breakout above 93,800 would neutralize the bearish outlook.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
BITCOIN → Retest of the 94,000 Zone of Interest...
BTCUSDT is rebounding from its interim low of 80,000. However, it is still too early to talk about a bull market, as a countertrend correction is forming under the current circumstances.
$BTC Globally, Bitcoin is in a downtrend, with the zone of interest for a countertrend correction being 94,000-95,000. The market structure is bearish, and a retest of the break-even zone could trigger a downward movement within the trend. After a strong liquidation to 80K, the market is forming a pullback, which is a basic phenomenon. There is no confirmation of a trend reversal yet, and the fundamental background is neutral, without clear support. Various analytical services suggest that the market is in a cleansing phase and has so far only liquidated short-term traders, reaching a cumulative average break-even price. A classic pullback. Technically, the zone of interest or magnet for the medium-term market is 75K (on the daily timeframe).
Resistance levels: 93,000, 94,000, 97,300 Support levels: 89,000, 86,000
In the current situation: a bearish trend, weak purchasing power, and a weak fundamental background, I consider a pullback to be the primary reaction to the 93-94K zone. However, the market is not constant, and if support appears (news or other drivers) and Bitcoin manages to stay above 95K, then growth can be expected.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
ETHEREUM - Buyers Waiting at the Intersection Zone! Look for Next ATH in 2026!
ETH remains overall bullish, moving steadily inside its rising channel. Every dip toward the lower bound has acted as a clean continuation point for the next push upward.
$ETH As price pulls back, we will be looking for long setups once ETH retests the intersection of the lower trendline and the demand zone. This confluence area has been respected multiple times, making it a high-probability level for trend-following entries.
As long as ETH holds above this orange zone, the bullish structure remains intact, and the next impulse toward the upper channel boundary becomes the most likely scenario. Only a break below the demand zone would weaken the bullish outlook.
Now we wait for the retest… then let the structure guide the entries.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
BTCUSDT | Bitcoin Going to Spark Up or Will It Fall From Here?
By analyzing the BTC chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that BTC followed our previous plan perfectly and after holding above the 81K demand zone it climbed back into the 91K area.
$BTC The bullish structure remains fully intact and momentum is still on the buyers’ side. As long as BTC stays above the 81K to 85K support range I expect the next upside wave to target 94K first and then 97K and 102K in continuation.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates. #BitcoinForecast
How to Build Discipline & Structured Trading Habits!
Discipline is not something you rely on in the moment; it is something you build through habits that remove emotional decision-making from your trading process.
1. Define Rules Before You Trade Traders without predefined rules rely on emotion. Traders with rules rely on structure. Clearly define your entry criteria, risk per trade, maximum daily loss, and exit strategy. When these rules exist before the session starts, you eliminate most impulsive behaviors. $BTC 2. Limit Your Daily Decisions Every decision drains mental energy. The more choices you make, the weaker your discipline becomes. Reduce the number of markets you watch, the number of setups you take, and the amount of chart time you expose yourself to. Fewer decisions lead to higher-quality decisions.
3. Use a Pre-Session Checklist A checklist forces you into a disciplined routine. It can include: • Reviewing your trading plan • Checking upcoming news releases • Confirming your bias or market conditions • Ensuring your risk settings are correct The act of going through the checklist prepares your mind to follow structure.
4. Implement a Hard Stop for the Day One of the fastest ways to lose discipline is to trade while emotional. Set a maximum daily drawdown. Once it is hit, the session ends. No exceptions. This protects both your capital and your psychology.
5. Track Your Rule Breaks Most traders only track wins and losses. Disciplined traders also track deviations. Write down every time you break a rule, why it happened, and how you plan to prevent it next time. Over time, this builds awareness and accountability.
6. Delay Impulsive Actions If you feel the urge to jump into a trade that does not fit your plan, delay the action by 30 to 60 seconds. Impulses lose power quickly. By introducing a pause, you give your rational mind time to regain control.
7. Keep Your Environment Clean Distractions destroy discipline. Silence notifications, close irrelevant tabs, and avoid multitasking. A clean trading environment supports clean decisions.
8. End Each Session With a Routine A consistent end-of-day routine reinforces discipline. Examples: • Rating your discipline on a scale from 1 to 10 • Reviewing whether you followed your rules • Logging emotional triggers Ending the day with structure makes it easier to begin the next one with structure.
Conclusion: Discipline is not built through motivation but through habits that create consistent behavior. A structured trading routine removes uncertainty, minimizes emotional influence, and helps you operate like a professional rather than a reactive participant.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin’s 125k Dream or 80k Nightmare, Who Wins This Game!
Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: In my view, Bitcoin usually drops around the New Year and Christmas, and this has happened almost every year. This is normal because people are buying during this time. So we might see another small drop. But this time, unlike before, Bitcoin may not go into a long multi-year “winter.” It could bounce back to higher levels, or even new highs, much faster than in the past. $BTC Now, let's dive into the educational section,
The Real Nature of Bitcoin: Bitcoin rewards those who understand the market’s true behavior It acts like digital hard money with massive upside potential Higher risk than gold yes but the payoff can be life changing Without knowledge risk becomes panic and panic becomes loss
Hard Money vs Fiat Traps: Fiat money constantly loses value through inflation silently People ignoring inflation stay trapped in financial decline Bitcoin exists to protect wealth from this invisible theft
Ten Years of Proof: Buying small every month would have changed your net worth Hype buyers get wrecked but consistent buyers get rewarded History shows deep crashes but even higher recoveries Every major dip eventually turned into new all time highs
The Two Traits of Real Winners: First understand fiat is designed to inflate forever Second stay consistent for years not weeks or months Long term players always get the long term rewards
Who Loses This Game: Those who see price only not the asset’s purpose Those with hype not strategy fall at every dip Oversized positions amplify fear and destroy accounts
Fear and Greed Control Weak Hands: Greed at the top creates bad entries no patience Fear during crashes triggers the worst possible exits Market simply transfers money from emotional to patient traders
Tools of TradingView for Smarter Bitcoin Plans: Set price alerts to avoid decisions made in panic Volume Profile reveals where strong hands accumulated Bitcoin Supply and demand zones highlight high probability reactions Multiple timeframes prevent tunnel vision during volatility
Summary: Understand the game stay consistent and Bitcoin can serve you Inflation won’t stop but your wealth doesn’t have to shrink
Three Key Recommendations: Think in decades not in daily candles to stay rational Use DCA and never invest more than your true capacity Protect emotions first because the market pays the calm ones
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin - 66k in 2026 (But First a Pump - Watch this!)
Bitcoin has been going down drastically, as I expected many, many weeks in advance. But this is not the end of the crash! We will see lower prices in 2026, specifically 66k and possibly 50k later in Q3 2026.
$BTC This is my long-term vision, but in the short term I think Bitcoin should go up to retest the previous long-term trendline and the previous falling wedge pattern at 97k! Usually after a breakout/breakdown, we want to see a retest. These retests are very important because they give us a chance to sell Bitcoin at a better price and also to short Bitcoin on the futures market.
Bitcoin did some pretty crazy movements in the past weeks, regardless of the seasonality patterns. Statistically Bitcoin is extremely strong in October and November—but this time it was the opposite. Even though seasonality patterns are helpful, you always need to look for more indicators and fundamentals.
Moonboys that were screaming for 200k and 500k got liquidated, and soon they will disappear from the market for good. I have been trading for almost 10 years, and I have experienced many crypto crashes, and the moonboys are always here at the top. When I was bearish at 120k, everyone was screaming in the comment section and even spitting on my bearish predictions.
So my plan for the next Bitcoin movements is as follows: First, Bitcoin should retest the 97k level (this will take some time). After that we should see another big leg to the downside to 66k.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Bitcoin has reached a major long-term support zone between 75,100 – 80,800, an area that previously acted as strong support in March 2024 and April 2025 on the monthly timeframe. The current monthly candle is testing this zone again, suggesting that buyers may step in to defend this historically important level. $BTC On the daily chart, BTC has formed a sharp decline toward this support area, but the recent reaction indicates early signs of accumulation. If buyers continue to hold this zone, a mid-term recovery could develop.
As long as the 75,100 support holds, BTC maintains strong potential for a medium-term rebound. However, a clean break below this zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and expose deeper downside.
Bitcoin sell off continues through the 90K to 88K support area. There have been no reversal confirmations on this time frame since I wrote my previous report. The reversal pattern that I was anticipating never even began to materialize. Trade opportunities were best found on the day trade time frames in my opinion. Why wasn't anyone calling for such a move back in August? All of the "experts" who seem to always know the future, until something like this comes along? This is why I don't forecast the future, instead I do my best to uncover potential risks which can lead to capturing potential opportunities. $BTC 88K is where I labeled Wave 1 of the broader 5th wave which I talked about for months. I warned investors that buying and attempting to hold above 100K was high risk. Bitcoin is NOW at prices worth monitoring for longer time horizon investing, BUT price has compromised the 88K overlap level. I interpret as we are no longer in the broader Wave 4 and instead, the Wave 5 of 5 is likely complete. There is a much lower chance that we get the dramatic rally into the 130Ks as a result.
This change in expectation is what guides how I gauge investment potential, which then shapes my strategy and goals. 73K is a MAJOR support level (previous all time high before the election) and it is now much more possible to be tested. IF there is any confirmed reversal before reaching this support, profit potential for SWING trades can be measured from the next series of resistances 95K, 100K, and 105K respectively. The 88K overlap suggests that Bitcoin is now in a broader Wave 2 which is likely to unfold in a long term range. A range low is more likely and has yet to be established. It could be 73K, it could be lower like in the 60Ks. SENTIMENT drives price over the short term which is why fundamentals alone are not enough.
There are many ways to begin accumulating Bitcoin inventory or acquiring exposure without buying Bitcoin itself. There's a entire collection of ETFs that track Bitcoin that have low cost fees. There are also other stocks that are highly correlated to Bitcoin but have their own unique characteristics which can enhance performance or help to mitigate some of the risks of buying Bitcoin itself. COIN is one of many examples. I would rather accumulate shares of a stock which is easily accessible and straightforward than accumulating Bitcoin itself simply out of convenience. I will talk more about this during my regular stream.
The illustration on my chart is ONE of many scenarios to consider for the coming weeks. While 73K is a possibility, I like it is a low probability that price will probe that low without attempting to retrace first. There is a pin bar in place but still lacking confirmation on this time frame. I believe there is a much higher chance of reversal from the current prices, BUT I do not expect an attempt at new all time highs any time soon. WAIT for confirmations, set profit objectives and keep expectations within the boundaries that are set forth by the PRICE STRUCTURE, not "experts" whose only agenda is to convert your attention into a paycheck.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
2021 vs 2025: Bitcoin Showing a Similar Macro Structure!
Bitcoin is showing a price structure very similar to the 2021 macro top, where BTC formed a dead-cat bounce from the 100 EMA before beginning a major correction.
On the current cycle, BTC is once again testing the 100 EMA, and the price reaction looks very similar to the 2021 pattern: a brief bounce followed by continued downside pressure.
$BTC Key Points:
- 2021 Pattern: BTC bounced from the 100 EMA before the macro crash.
- 2025 Price Action: Showing a similar bounce and reject structure at the same weekly EMA.
- Major Weekly Resistance: Market showing exhaustion and lower-high structure, just like previous cycle tops.
- Potential Dead-Cat Bounce: We could see a bounce toward the $100K–$107K zone before the downtrend continues.
- Possible Repeat Scenario: If BTC fails to hold above the 100 EMA, history suggests a deeper correction may follow.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
Is a Crash to $56k About to Occur for Bitcoin? -November 2025!
The above chart been brought to my attention by a number of folks asking for an opinion. So here it is.. remember, am just a messenger not target practice.
Price action shown on the above weekly chart has closed under the 50 week SMA, or so I’m told.
$BTC “Is that it? The top now in Ww?”
Look left, if you’re using two moving averages:
50 week SMA (blue) 200 week SMA
Then for you, the top is in. It’s over, go home. Congratulate yourself once again for providing exit liquidity for those that entered long positions at $15k. They have your everlasting thanks.
What's the hullabaloo? Throughout the history of Bitcoin a test of the 200 weekly SMA occurred every time price action closed under the 50 week SMA. That’s not up for debate, it is a chart fact. Today that would be a highly predictable test of $56k, which is also the Fibonacci 0.38.
This forecast is going to upset a lot of people. The influencers promised them tales for fortune and glory. Instead.. they got a lesson in basic economics, but they had to pay $50,000 for it. You don't get refunds for stupidity, do ya?
Is this time different? It is not possible to tell right now. Many might look at the chart and quit, they’ve had enough. That would be a mistake. Why? Confirmation.
Look left. Always look left. Until Monday 24th, November it is not known if the break of the 50 week is confirmed. Indeed if you take a closer look, price action has not actually closed a weekly candle body under the 50 week SMA, it has closed through it. That’s important. Conclusions: So here we are again, Bitcoin teetering on the edge, influencers chanting “bull market!” like it’s a religion, and yet… there’s that nasty little blue line.
Price action under the 50-week SMA has never ended well. Not once. Every single time, without exception, it’s been followed by a cozy trip down to the 200-week SMA. Historically, that’s what Bitcoin does, it falls until it hits something red and expensive looking, then everyone acts surprised.
And where’s that level today? About $56k. Right on the Fibonacci 0.38. It’s like gravity with maths. But before you light the torches and start the “Ww’s turned bearish” posts, calm down. The candle hasn’t confirmed yet. That’s right, you’ve got until Monday, November 24th to find out if this is the real deal or just another fake-out designed to make you question every life decision since buying at $110k.
Look left. Every time price closed through the 50-week, the same story played out:
August 2014: crash. June 2018: crash. January 2022: crash. It’s basically Bitcoin’s version of Groundhog Day, but without Bill Murray or the happy ending.
If it confirms below that line, that’s it. The 200-week SMA becomes the magnet. If not, we’ll bounce, the influencers will return, and everyone will convince themselves they knew all along. Either way, I’m not saying “doom.” I’m just saying, maths, it works.
Trade at your own Risk 👍 Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency Stay Tuned for Further Updates.