In my opinion, the bullish structure of $BTC will only truly break down if the price clearly drops below the 55k zone. This is a crucial level because if we lose this area, the entire accumulation scenario for the next leg up will weaken significantly.

However, personally, I still don't believe that Bitcoin will easily drop to 45k or lower in this cycle. The market might correct, it might sweep liquidity, it might freak a lot of people out, but to break down that deeply, we would need a much larger shock.

The scenario I'm leaning towards for Q3/Q4 2026 is that BTC will enter a pretty wide summer range, maybe around 74k to 60k. This will be a phase where the market frustrates both longs and shorts before showing a clearer direction.

If the 60k level holds, I think BTC still has a chance to revisit 90k–100k.

And of course, in the 100k zone, big players like Saylor or institutions holding a lot of BTC will have another opportunity to distribute or reallocate their positions.

In summary, I'm not too bearish, but I'm also not rushing to fomo. With BTC right now, patience is more important than emotions.
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