The expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been delayed, leading to marginal contraction in US dollar liquidity. The Bank of Japan's signals of interest rate hikes have pushed up government bond yields, exacerbating the sell-off in global risk assets. Chinese regulatory authorities have made it clear that activities related to virtual currencies are considered illegal financial activities, and domestic investors face extremely high policy and legal risks when participating in trading.
Bitcoin technical analysis:
Major trend: The correction from the historical high in October (above ~$100,000) has exceeded 31%, and the weekly upward trend has been broken, entering a phase of high-level consolidation or deep adjustment. $80,000 is currently the most important psychological and technical support level; if the daily closing price effectively falls below this level, it will open up greater downside potential. Initial resistance above is at $87,000 (previous low turning into resistance). The daily RSI has fallen into the oversold zone (below 30), but in a downtrend, the RSI may remain in an oversold state for a long time; rebound signals need to be assessed in conjunction with whether the price can hold above support.
Ethereum technical analysis:
The trend generally follows Bitcoin, but volatility is usually greater. The $2,800 - $2,900 area is a key support zone that has been contested multiple times. The current price has fallen below it, so we need to observe whether it can quickly recover. The next key support has shifted down to around $2,600. Strong resistance above is at $3,200. Similar to Bitcoin, all major daily moving averages have formed a bearish arrangement. The daily RSI has also entered the oversold zone, technically indicating a rebound demand, but whether the trend reverses still needs to be observed if the price can re-establish above the key resistance.
Bitcoin $BTC operation strategy
Follow the trend (right-side trading): After effectively breaking through and stabilizing above $88,000-$89,000, consider following up, with the target looking towards the resistance zone of $92,000-$93,000. Stop loss: Set slightly below the breakout point.
Counter-trend betting (left-side trading): Look for stabilization signals near the strong support area of $80,000-$82,000 (such as hourly RSI divergence, long lower shadows). Stop loss: Must be set below the support area (e.g., BTC below $78,000, ETH below $2,650).
Note: If the price cannot break through the above resistance and turns back again, abandon this plan.
Ethereum $ETH operation strategy
Follow the trend (right-side trading): After effectively breaking through and stabilizing above the resistance zone of $3,050-$3,058, consider following up, with the next target looking towards above $3,200. Stop loss: Set slightly below the breakout point.
Counter-trend betting (left-side trading): Look for stabilization signals near the support area of $2,700-$2,785. Target: Focus only on the recent resistance level of ETH $3,050 as a short-term rebound.
