BTC Currently, what you see is a weak rebound structure after a sharp decline.

This hourly level rebound is essentially:

Shorts aggressively hit → Bottom at 83786 → Shorts take profit → A technical retracement to repair indicators

However, the key points are:

The rebound has not broken through the moving average pressure (MA20)

The rebound volume is insufficient

MACD has turned positive, but it's a false golden cross, and the strength is weak

BOLL middle track cannot rise, indicating the trend has not reversed

In other words:

This is a rebound after a drop, not a reversal.

The trend remains bearish.

Accelerating factors in the news

• Last night, the US stock tech sector weakened, dragging down risk assets → Bearish for BTC

• The market is starting to worry about the Fed's hawkish statements in December → Bearish for the leveraged market

• ETF optimism is waning, with short-term net outflows → Short-term rebound cannot hold

The news and technical direction are completely consistent:

Bearish, looking bearish on rebounds, and upward movements are providing better positions for shorts.

Shorting on rebounds

As long as the rebound reaches the following ranges, you can short directly:

86700–87200 (currently close, can try with a small position)

— This is the first structural pressure

88000–88500 (the best short point, quality entry area)

— Reaching here is a scoring opportunity

Stop-loss: 89200

Targets:

• First target: 85500

• Second target: 84200

• Extreme target: 83500

Not recommended to go long, but short-term gains can be captured

There are only two positions to go long:

84000–84500 (strong support)

Only seize the rebound when clear stabilization signals appear

Target not exceeding 300–600 points

83000–83500 (last defense)

This is a bottom that large funds may lift again

But it is akin to licking blood from a knife's edge, suitable only for quick in-and-out

Long position stop-loss: 82500

Now it has reached around 86600 → It is near the first short point

Should you take action?

You can short with a small position

Wait until 88000 to add to your short position

Overall thinking remains bearish.

In summary

BTC's rebound is a weak rebound, and the structure has not reversed.

The trend is still downward.

As long as 88000 is not broken, stick to the strategy of shorting on rebounds.