BTC Currently, what you see is a weak rebound structure after a sharp decline.
This hourly level rebound is essentially:
Shorts aggressively hit → Bottom at 83786 → Shorts take profit → A technical retracement to repair indicators
However, the key points are:
The rebound has not broken through the moving average pressure (MA20)
The rebound volume is insufficient
MACD has turned positive, but it's a false golden cross, and the strength is weak
BOLL middle track cannot rise, indicating the trend has not reversed
In other words:
This is a rebound after a drop, not a reversal.
The trend remains bearish.
Accelerating factors in the news
• Last night, the US stock tech sector weakened, dragging down risk assets → Bearish for BTC
• The market is starting to worry about the Fed's hawkish statements in December → Bearish for the leveraged market
• ETF optimism is waning, with short-term net outflows → Short-term rebound cannot hold
The news and technical direction are completely consistent:
Bearish, looking bearish on rebounds, and upward movements are providing better positions for shorts.
Shorting on rebounds
As long as the rebound reaches the following ranges, you can short directly:
86700–87200 (currently close, can try with a small position)
— This is the first structural pressure
88000–88500 (the best short point, quality entry area)
— Reaching here is a scoring opportunity
Stop-loss: 89200
Targets:
• First target: 85500
• Second target: 84200
• Extreme target: 83500
Not recommended to go long, but short-term gains can be captured
There are only two positions to go long:
84000–84500 (strong support)
Only seize the rebound when clear stabilization signals appear
Target not exceeding 300–600 points
83000–83500 (last defense)
This is a bottom that large funds may lift again
But it is akin to licking blood from a knife's edge, suitable only for quick in-and-out
Long position stop-loss: 82500
Now it has reached around 86600 → It is near the first short point
Should you take action?
You can short with a small position
Wait until 88000 to add to your short position
Overall thinking remains bearish.
In summary
BTC's rebound is a weak rebound, and the structure has not reversed.
The trend is still downward.
As long as 88000 is not broken, stick to the strategy of shorting on rebounds.


