Technical analysis. The current price of BTC shows consolidation in the range of approximately $81–89K. It is expected that the nearest resistance will be the zone of $88–94K, while the key psychological level of $100K plays a crucial role. Glassnode analysts note that Bitcoin has 'stuck' in fragile boundaries of $81K–$89K after losing important support levels, and liquidity in the market has significantly decreased. On the daily chart, the important local support is around $82K (the latest lows), and further declines to $74–76K correspond to deep oversold conditions (similar to April 2022). Conversely, supports are turning into potential bounce targets: levels around $88–94K and the psychological barrier of $100K have repeatedly acted as barriers to growth.
Technical indicators indicate a gradual decrease in bearish pressure, but a reversal has not yet occurred. According to AlphaNode, the daily RSI has exited the deeply oversold zone (around 30) and risen to the range of 30–40, while the MACD is still below the zero line; however, negative momentum is shrinking. This indicates the completion of the liquidation phase and the beginning of a decrease in volatility. However, the long-term trend remains downward until the price consolidates above $100 thousand and the 200-day average (around $110–107 thousand). The average daily amplitude (ATR) remains high (~$4–4.5 thousand), indicating wide price fluctuations per day, although they have gradually become more 'organized'.
Certain traders are paying attention to proprietary patterns: in particular, a bearish 'Deep Crab' seems to have formed on the weekly chart, and a long-term reversal model 'Turtle Soup' is also being maintained. However, such harmonic figures are often speculative. It is much more important to monitor classical support/resistance levels: today, a breakout and consolidation above $94–100 thousand could indicate a trend recovery, while a drop below $82 thousand would strengthen the corrective impulse.
Level (USD)Assignment$107,000 - Important resistance (lower bound of the 200-day MA)$100,000Key resistance/support (psychological barrier)$94,000 Resistance (previous shoulder)$88,000 Average resistance (bounce price)$82,000 Support (latest local minima)$76,000 Main support (lower bound of correction)
Fundamental factors. At the end of November, Bitcoin came under pressure from macroeconomic risks. In particular, expectations of Federal Reserve decisions and a strengthening dollar, along with uneven data (delay in employment report), create uncertainty. Government actions also became a catalyst for the decline: new U.S. tariffs on imports from China coincided with a sharp drop in BTC ($-20 thousand in a day) and mass liquidations of positions ($16–19 billion). All this caused a 'risk-off' effect – the drop in early November pulled the price back to around $80 thousand and led to 'extreme fear' in the market. Bitcoin fell by ~17% in November (one of the worst months in the last 7 years), reflecting several negative signals at once.
On-chain, signs of pressure are also increasing. Glassnode records a sharp increase in realized losses among short-term participants: the ratio of profits/losses (short-term holders) has fallen nearly to zero. This means that a large portion of trading occurs at a loss, which is characteristic of market exhaustion phases. Meanwhile, LTH sellers (long-term holders) continue to realize profits, but their 'sales pace' is slowing down. Regarding market flows, in November, record amounts of capital (~$3.8 billion) were withdrawn from ETF funds, which added pressure on the price. Against this backdrop, the total amount of coins on exchanges has decreased to multi-year lows (estimated by CryptoQuant at ~1.8 million BTC), which is traditionally considered a positive sign (less selling supply), but the effect has yet to outweigh the fear and losses of traders.
Actions of 'whales' and market sentiments. Recently, there has been a divergence between the actions of large investors and retail participants. According to CryptoQuant analysis, 'new' large holders (who entered the market before the recent hype) are actively selling BTC at a loss, while long-time 'whales' cautiously buy on dips. An illustration of this is the fact: addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC have accumulated additional tens of thousands of coins, while average large holders (100–10,000 BTC) are conversely selling significant volumes (twice as much as they are buying). In other words, the market is forming a bottom as the most recent buyers exit their positions while 'veterans' accumulate with a margin. At a macro level, the fear/greed index shows 'extreme fear' (the lowest since July 2022), which usually precedes a bounce but indicates panic sentiments. Mining also gives a mixed signal: miners' revenue (hashprice) has fallen to a record low of ~$35 per PH/s, and some companies are already shutting down equipment. This means that the drop in BTC is reducing network profitability and potentially limiting the deficit 'short pressure', but it also indicates rising costs for miners.
Forecast and recommendations for the week leading up to December 7. Given the above, in the coming days, one can expect rather consolidation with a possible short-term bounce, rather than a sharp trend reversal. RSI and other oscillators indicate oversold conditions (historically similar declines of 25–30% led to trend recovery later). Technically, the short-term growth target is the zones $88–94 thousand as the first resistance level; a sustained rise above $94–100 thousand (especially if it holds on the 4-hour chart) could signal a weakening of bearish pressure. However, it should be remembered that a true reversal will require a consolidation above $100 thousand and a restoration of positive momentum, which is currently lacking.
In the opposite scenario, it cannot be ruled out that the sell-off will continue to key supports: around $80–82 thousand (where the first buying occurred) and deeper – $74–76 thousand (psychological bottom, historical local minimum). These zones should be considered 'stop-loss' levels: a closed drop below $76 thousand may provoke 'technical panic' and push the price even closer to $68–70 thousand (local minimum of 2023/2024).
Recommendations: Given the uncertainty, traders should refrain from overly risky entries. A conservative strategy is to wait for a clear trend change signal: a weekly close above $100 thousand with increased volume would provide grounds to consider the decline complete. A local long (buying on a bounce) makes sense closer to supports of $81–82 thousand with a short take-profit near $90–94 thousand. On the other hand, a breakout below $80 thousand would emphasize the dominance of the bearish trend, and in that case, it is better to reduce exposure or partially realize profits on short positions, wisely setting stops near $82 thousand.
Brief summary: Bitcoin is currently consolidating in a narrow range around $81–89K. RSI indicates oversold conditions, but MACD and medium-term MAs remain bearish. Key levels: support ~$82K (east of the single drop) and $74–76K (deep bottom); resistances: ~$88K, $94K, and psychological mark $100K. Market sentiments are very pessimistic (Extreme Fear), while some 'whales' are selling ($80–90K) and long-term holders are buying. Fundamentally, factors are not on the side of bulls: growing realized losses and record outflows from ETFs create pressure. A temporary stabilization bounce is expected, but to confirm a bullish trend, a breakout above ~$100K is necessary.
Sources: analysis from Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Cointelegraph, TradingView, etc.
