Core Viewpoint
Current Price: $2,791 (as of December 2, 10:00)
Short-term Outlook: Neutral to Cautious. The technical indicators show oversold signals, with the 4-hour RSI touching 33.68 entering the oversold zone, indicating a possibility of a short-term rebound. However, the price continues to operate below the main moving averages, and the bearish pattern remains unchanged. If it can hold above $2,800 with increasing volume, it may test $2,850-$2,900; conversely, a drop below $2,720 will face further downward pressure.
Key Support:
Recent Support: $2,720-$2,727 (Bollinger Bands lower band)
Secondary Support: $2,700 (Liquidation Concentration Zone)
Strong Support: $2,600-$2,640
Key Resistance:
Recent Resistance: $2,800-2,850 (maximum pain for options)
Major Resistance: $2,900-3,000 (dense area of moving averages)
Technical Analysis
Price Trends and Indicators
In the past 24 hours, ETH has retraced from $2,844 to around $2,791, with an intraday volatility range of $2,724-2,811, a decline of 2.49%. The price is currently consolidating near the 1-hour Bollinger band midpoint around $2,794, showing short-term consolidation characteristics.
Oversold signals emerge: 4-hour RSI at 33.68, has entered the oversold zone, indicating weakened selling pressure; 1-hour RSI at 39.96, close to the oversold threshold.
MACD Divergence Signals: 1-hour MACD histogram turns positive at +10.06, indicating signs of short-term momentum recovery; however, 4-hour MACD remains in the negative region at -25.49, confirming the medium-term bearish dominance.
Significant Resistance from Moving Averages: The price operates below all major moving averages, with the 1-hour EMA12 at $2,790 and SMA50 at $2,902; the 4-hour EMA12 at $2,859 forms multiple resistances. A breakthrough of the $2,800-2,850 range is needed to change the bearish arrangement.
Derivatives Market Dynamics
Options Market: Total open interest at $9.46 billion, 24-hour growth of 4.14%, trading volume surged by 125% to $1.8 billion. The maximum pain point for recently expiring contracts (December 2-5) is at $2,850, creating price pull.
Liquidation Distribution: Long liquidation concentrated below, with a cumulative $59M at the $2,700 level and $851M below $2,600; short liquidation starts from $2,803, with a cumulative $1.3B at $2,899. In 24 hours, $123M has been liquidated ($97M long vs $26M short), indicating significant leverage pressure on long positions.
Funding Rates: Bybit and OKX show negative values (-0.006 to -0.009), with shorts paying longs, reflecting dominant market short sentiment but with potential for reversal. Open interest decreases by 0.61% in 1 hour and 0.9% in 4 hours, showing clear signs of deleveraging.
On-chain Data Analysis
Changes in Exchange Liquidity
Significant net outflow trend: On December 1, total net outflow across all exchanges was 29,868 ETH (inflows of 1.152 million ETH vs outflows of 1.182 million ETH), with Binance experiencing a single-day net outflow of 77,031 ETH (approximately $21.5 million), the largest single-day outflow recently. In the past 7 days, 6 days showed net outflows, totaling a reduction of approximately 269,000 ETH in exchange reserves.
Reserves Continue to Decline: Total ETH reserves across all exchanges dropped from 16.82 million on November 25 to 16.58 million on December 1, a decrease of 1.6%. A reduction in reserves usually signals a decrease in selling pressure, combined with price stabilization, which may form a basis for a rebound.
Market Sentiment and Events
Negative Factors Dominate
Macro Pressures: The crypto market experienced a sell-off at the beginning of December, with Bitcoin recording its largest single-day drop since March, leading to risk aversion sentiments spreading to ETH. The People's Bank of China warns against illegal crypto activities, putting pressure on Asian digital asset stocks.
Security Incident: Yearn Finance yETH pool was attacked, resulting in a loss of approximately 1,000 ETH ($3 million); although the V2/V3 treasury is secure, it temporarily affects market confidence.
Potential Positive News
ETF Fund Inflows: The US spot Ethereum ETF recorded net inflows last week, with institutions like BlackRock actively buying, and the market expects that the approval of staking functionality will further enhance attractiveness. Although there was overall net outflow in November, significant signs of reversal appeared at the end of the month.
Institutional Positioning: Corporate treasuries increase holdings of ETH, combined with whale defensive buying in a downtrend, forming support in the $2,700-2,800 range. Analysts emphasize the value of programmable networks and DeFi infrastructure in social media discussions, providing narrative support for a bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
Technical Upgrade Expectations: The Pectra/Fusaka upgrade is approaching, which may become a catalyst around mid-December.
Scenario Simulation
Bullish Scenario (Probability 40%)
Trigger Conditions: Hold the support at $2,720, RSI rebound combined with expanding positive MACD histogram, trading volume breaks through $2,800.
Target Levels: $2,850 (maximum pain for options) → $2,900 (4-hour EMA12) → $3,000 (psychological barrier)
Supporting Factors: Continued net outflow from exchanges, negative funding rate correction, whale defensive buying, positive ETF inflows
Bearish Scenario (Probability 30%)
Trigger Conditions: Break below the lower Bollinger band at $2,720, triggering a liquidation stampede at $2,700, with 4-hour MACD remaining negative.
Target Levels: $2,700 (primary support) → $2,600 (secondary support) → $2,500 (extreme case)
Risk Factors: Intensified macro risk aversion sentiments, Bitcoin's decline dragging down, continued moving average pressure, liquidation chain reactions
Consolidation Scenario (Probability 30%)
Range: $2,720-2,850, waiting for directional choice
Characteristics: Low volatility consolidation, open interest continues to decline, waiting for catalysts (upgrade progress, ETF data, macro events)
Operational Suggestions
Short-term Traders: Long at $2,720-2,750, target $2,850, stop loss at $2,680; Short at $2,850-2,900, target $2,750, stop loss at $2,920.
Medium-term Holders: Gradually build positions between $2,700-2,750, add more below $2,600, gradually reduce positions between $2,900-3,000, and hold coins while observing upgrades and ETF dynamics.
Risk Control: Currently in a period of technical weakness but on-chain strength, keep position below 50%, avoid high leverage, and pay attention to the breakout directions of the two key price levels at $2,720 and $2,850.
